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Having been the final team to qualify for this summer’s Club World Cup following a playoff victory over Club América earlier in the month, Los Angeles FC became the second outfit to exit the newly expanded tournament on Friday evening. The Californians were left licking their wounds after losing to four-time CAF Champions League winners Espérance de Tunis, having already been beaten by Chelsea on Group D’s opening matchday.
In stark contrast to their struggling opponents, Flamengo have an extremely positive start to the competition. After a convincing 2-0 victory over the reigning Tunisian champions in Philadelphia on the third day of Club World Cup action, the Rubro-Negro returned to the Lincoln Financial Field to stun Chelsea last Friday.
Having been trailing with just half an hour of the tie remaining, Flamengo delivered three goals in a chaotic six-minute spell as the West Londoners wilted under the Pennsylvania sun. That result made it impossible for both Chelsea and Espérance de Tunis to catch Filipe Luís’ men at the summit of Group D, confirming Flamengo’s safe passage through to the knockout stages.
We’ve conducted a detailed review of recent match stats ahead of the first-ever competitive meeting between these two teams, which helps us to shape our search for value in the odds markets. We’re therefore in a position to provide you with a set of data-driven betting tips, delivered in partnership with leading bookmarker bet365.
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LAFC v Flamengo, Wednesday, 2.00am (BST)
LAFC v Flamengo betting tips
Flamengo to win and BTTS – No: 2/1 (bet365)
Over 1.5 goals in the second half: 1/1 (bet365)
Giorgian de Arrascaeta to score or assist: 4/6 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Flamengo to win without worry
Although few would have expected LAFC to progress from such a difficult group, the manner in which they’ve been eliminated will undoubtedly be a concern to Head Coach Steve Cherundolo. The Black and Gold Falcons haven’t scored a single goal in their maiden Club World Cup campaign so far, failing to lay a glove on either Chelsea or Espérance de Tunis.
The stats expose a real bluntness in attack. LAFC could only muster 18 shots at goal over the course of those opening two matches, with just seven of these hitting the target. Having been constantly pushed back into defensive territory during their meeting with the West Londoners, last season’s U.S. Open Cup winners made a paltry 40 entries into the final third and were only awarded a single corner. Although they enjoyed the lion’s share of possession against Espérance de Tunis, LAFC found it extremely difficult to carve out clear-cut goalscoring opportunities. Furthermore, they failed to capitalise on the limited chances that did come their way, as evidenced by Denis Bouanga’s missed penalty in the dying moments of the game.
Less than three weeks before landing in the States, Flamengo secured their place in the last sixteen of the Copa Libertadores with a narrow victory over Venezuelans Deportivo Táchira. They also currently assume pole position in Série A, edging ahead of familiar foes Cruzeiro on goal difference. Therefore, the Brazilians’ fast start should perhaps have been expected.
While former Atlético Madrid full-back Filipe Luís’ might be tempted to rest some of his big-name stars on Wednesday, you would still back Flamengo to preserve their long unbeaten run. Tasked with facing two teams of varying quality in the opening week of the tournament, the Rio de Janeiro-based outfit have shown they’re capable of winning in different ways. Having dominated the ball for large spells while putting Espérance de Tunis to the sword, they demonstrated immense maturity, pragmatism, and spirit to overcome Enzo Maresca’s rejuvenated Chelsea side. Flamengo’s in-form attackers fired 14 shots at a busy Robert Sánchez, who was forced into making several important saves. The Spanish stopper could do nothing about the three goals he conceded, however, as Bruno Henrique, Danilo, and Wallace Yan all converted from close range.
The form guide suggests Flamengo will cruise to victory in Orlando, while their opponents’ profligacy in the penalty box could undermine their attacking efforts once again. Don’t be surprised if LAFC fail to get on the scoresheet for a third match running.
Betting tip: Flamengo to win and BTTS – No: 2/1 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Flamengo win the match and LAFC do not score.
A glut of goals after the interval?
Only one of Flamengo’s five goals in their first two Club World Cup fixtures was scored in the first half, coming courtesy of Giorgian de Arrascaeta's right boot less than 20 minutes into the meeting with Espérance de Tunis.
The miraculous comeback against Chelsea was sparked just after the hour mark, as Bruno Henrique poked home to send the travelling Flamengo fans into raptures. Experienced defender Danilo doubled his team’s lead less than 180 seconds later, before Wallace Yan put the game out of the Blues’ reach within 15 minutes of Nicolas Jackson’s red card.
We a see similar theme when assessing Flamengo’s goal times on domestic duty, with a barrage of second-half strikes helping them to keep pace with Cruzeiro at the top of the league. A substantial 14 of their 24 Série A goals have come after the half-time break, highlighting a clear pattern that appears to be continuing in America.
There’s no reason why this won’t continue on Wednesday, as LAFC players begin to think about that long plane journey home following an immensely underwhelming campaign.
Betting tip: Over 1.5 goals in the second half: 1/1 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if two or more goals are scored in the second half.
Expect de Arrascaeta to make a major impact
Having been unable to score in just one of his nine Série A appearances – drawing a blank in a 0-0 stalemate with Vasco da Gama – this term, it seemed inevitable that Giorgian de Arrascaeta would claim Flamengo’s opening goal at the Club World Cup. The Uruguayan international also broke the deadlock in a recent Copa Libertadores encounter with Central Córdoba, and netted twice in the Campeonato Carioca as Flamengo romped to a record-extending 39th State Championship title.
Renowned for his spectacular finishing capabilities, de Arrascaeta is one of just seven players to have received multiple Puskás Award nominations. Although his spectacular goals often dominate the headlines, the 31-year-old – who has previously attracted interest from a host of high-profile European clubs – also serves as Flamengo’s chief creative architect. Since arriving at the Maracanã in January 2019 from Série A rivals Cruzeiro, has registered a staggering 99 assists in his 318 appearances.
The talented playmaker could wreak havoc on an already weary LAFC defence, as he bids to exploit an ideal opportunity to increase his season’s numbers. Although a low price, we believe odds of 4/6 for de Arrascaeta to score or assist provide reasonably good value.
Betting tip: Giorgian de Arrascaeta to score or assist: 4/6 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Giorgian de Arrascaeta scores at any time during the match.
LAFC v Flamengo odds
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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