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After a slow start to their debut Club World Cup campaign, Borussia Dortmund secured a crucial victory over Mamelodi Sundowns in a seven-goal thriller on Saturday evening. Niko Kovač’s men drew 0-0 with Série A outfit Fluminense four days earlier, who will meet the reigning South African champions in their final group stage game.
Given the current configuration of the Group F table, Dortmund know that a point on Wednesday night may not be good enough to secure qualification for the knockout stages. However, they’ll be confident of putting Ulsan HD to the sword, one of a small handful of teams to have already exited the tournament.
The South Korean minnows were narrowly beaten by the Sundowns in Orlando last week, having been unable to find a response to Iqraam Rayners’ first-half opener. A pulsating encounter with Fluminense also ended in defeat, as the Brazilians showed their class in an action-packed second half at the MetLife Stadium. Ulsan could theoretically clinch third place in what has proved to be a hugely competitive pool, but any sort of positive result would represent a minor miracle against one of Europe’s footballing powerhouses.
We’ve cross-referenced each team’s stats with the betting markets, enabling us to provide you with some expert tips ahead of Wednesday’s clash in Ohio.
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Borussia Dortmund v Ulsan HD, Wednesday, 8.00pm (BST)
Borussia Dortmund v Ulsan HD betting tips
Borussia Dortmund -1 handicap: 8/13 (bet365)
Borussia Dortmund to have over 7.5 shots on target: 1/1 (bet365)
Ko Seung-Beom to make 3+ tackles: 5/4 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Expect Dortmund to win by a healthy margin
Although far from firing on all cylinders, Dortmund should have far too much for Asia’s lowest-ranked Club World Cup representatives.
Gregor Kobel produced several superb saves to keep Fluminense at bay in the Group F opener, perhaps most notably to deny Brazilian midfielder Nonato within a split-second of palming out Everaldo’s fizzing effort. While Kobel was overworked at the other end, his outfield teammates failed to find their creative spark in the final third despite dominating possession.
However, the German giants played with a familiar swagger at the weekend, as tidy finishes from Felix Nmecha, Serhou Guirassy, Jobe Bellingham, and an own goal from Mamelodi full-back Khuliso Mudau handed Dortmund all three points in Cincinnati.
Having lost all six of their previous contests at FIFA’s flagship international club competition, Ulsan are unsurprisingly considered huge underdogs heading into Wednesday’s meeting. However, they did take the lead in three of these six matches, suggesting that an elusive first victory may soon arrive.
The Tigers gave a very good account of themselves against South American heavyweights Fluminense, pushing their esteemed opponents all the way. Having gone behind thanks to Jhon Arias’ spectacular set-piece effort, two counter-attacking goals from Lee Jin-hyun and Um Won-sang gave Ulsan an unlikely lead at the interval. They were unable to prevent Fluminense from staging a second-half comeback, but Kim Pan-gon’s side will undoubtedly be buoyed by their resilient display.
Although Ulsan were never likely to progress to the latter stages of the Club World Cup given the quality of its participants, recent results in domestic and continental competition have been a cause for concern. Having reached the midway point of their K-League campaign, the five-time champions find themselves way back in fifth place and trailing runaway leaders Jeonbuk by a colossal 13 points. Their miserable league form coincides with a wretched AFC Champions League campaign, which saw them register the lowest goals tally in the entire East Division. A single victory against Chinese outfit Shanghai Shenhua was the only highlight amidst a string of disappointing defeats, as Ulsan crashed out in the opening phase.
Therefore, we can safely assume Dortmund will win comfortably on Wednesday night. Kobel’s goal may well be breached at some stage, but there will undoubtedly be plenty more action in the opposite penalty box.
Betting tip: Borussia Dortmund -1 handicap: 8/13 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Borussia Dortmund win the game by two or more goals.
Quality over quantity – a look at Dortmund’s shooting stats
At the conclusion of the Club World Cup’s second round of fixtures, Dortmund had executed fewer shots at goal than any other team in Group F. However, a considerable nine of their 15 attempts were on target, demonstrating a clinical edge in the final third.
The German giants only managed to register seven efforts last Tuesday evening, but did force Fluminense’s 44-year-old goalkeeper Fábio into making a save on three separate occasions. An even greater degree of accuracy was achieved against Mamelodi Sundowns, with 75% of their eight shots heading somewhere between the sticks. Every one of Dortmund’s first three goals – an opportunistic strike from Felix Nmecha, Serhou Guirassy’s bullet header, and a Jobe Bellingham volley on the Englishman’s full debut for the club – were extremely well taken, before Khuliso Mudau deflected the ball into his own net.
The stalemate in New Jersey was the first time Dortmund had failed to score at least three times in a match since April’s 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich, highlighting the extent of their productivity in front of goal. While we may not see a barrel load of shots on Wednesday night, we can expect a high level of precision from BVB’s attacking personnel.
A price of 1/1 for over 7.5 shots on target seems like a steal.
Betting tip: Borussia Dortmund to have over 7.5 shots on target: 1/1 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Borussia Dortmund hit the target on seven or more occasions
Tackling the tackles market
It may not be the most traditional of odds markets, but bets on the volume of tackles a specific player makes can often provide some really good value.
Faced with the daunting task of competing against a superior opponent, Ulsan showed immense aggression in their entertaining encounter with Fluminense. The South Koreans committed an eye-watering 14 fouls, more than treble the number of free-kicks Fluminense conceded. All but one of the 16 Ulsan players who featured in the 4-2 defeat to the 2023 Copa Libertadores champions won at least one duel, with versatile midfielder Ko Seung-Beom completing eight successful tackles in total.
We’ll likely see a similar level of tenacity at the TQL Stadium, as Ulsan try to make it as uncomfortable as possible for the heavy favourites. While Dortmund are undoubtedly equipped with far more quality, the K-League outfit will be hoping their eagerness to win back possession will serve as some sort of leveller between the two teams. Whatever happens, you can expect the likes of Ko Seung-Beom to get stuck in on Wednesday night.
Betting tip: Ko Seung-Beom to make 3+ tackles: 5/4 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Ulsan’s Ko Seung-Beom registers three or more tackles throughout the match.
Borussia Dortmund v Ulsan HD odds
Borussia Dortmund: 2/9 (bet365)
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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