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It’s gameweek four of the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, and Manchester United enjoy home advantage as they line up against Italian Serie A side Roma.
The hosts are struggling in the Premier League and are currently much closer to the relegation zone than the top four. Things aren’t much better in this competition, with Michael Carrick’s side winning one and losing two.
Roma arrive at the Theatre of Dreams six places higher in the league than their opponents. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team won on their third attempt and will fancy their chances of grabbing a quick second.
Man Utd are the pre-match betting favourites to make home advantage count and score an overdue three points. Should you follow the market or target the higher odds on Roma?
Keep reading as football betting expert Frank Monkhouse explains the thinking behind his three Manchester United vs Roma predictions.
Man Utd vs Roma: Betting tips
Roma win or draw @ 4/7 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Double chance - Roma or draw
Man Utd fans haven’t had much to cheer about lately, and I expect things will get worse on Tuesday.
Our partners at Opta Stats tell us Man Utd have won only two of their last 10 games in this competition, losing seven and drawing the other.
Carrick’s team began their challenge with a 4-0 home win over Sabah FK. It was an ideal start, but defeats to Atletico Madrid and Como followed. The Red Devils are now 21st in the table, level on points with RB Leipzig down in 30th.
Man Utd have played four home games in all competitions since beating Sabah, and failed to pick up a win. They lost the Manchester Derby 1-0, before suffering a 3-2 defeat to Brighton, a 1-1 draw with Tottenham, and a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth.
Roma recently drew 3-3 at Napoli in Serie A, and 1-1 at Fenerbahce in this competition. The Wolves are good enough to claim at least a point here.
When you back Roma on the double chance market, you’ll profit if the Italians win or draw. You’re happy with any outcome other than a home win for a team that’s down on their luck.
Tip: Roma or draw @ 4/7 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Roma avoid defeat at Manchester United, you’ll beat the bookies and make a profit.
Total goals - Over 2.5
My second Manchester United vs Roma Champions League prediction comes from the total goals market. I’m backing Tuesday’s match to produce more than two goals from both teams combined.
Let’s start with the head-to-head stats available on the Flashscore app.
Over 2.5 goals won in each of the last three meetings. In that time, Man Utd beat Roma 3-2 in 2014, and 6-2 in 2021, before Roma responded with a 3-2 victory the same year.
Let’s turn our attention to more recent times. Roma drew 1-1 with Fenerbahce, lost 4-3 to Real Madrid, and thrashed Slovan Bratislava 4-0. Over the same three-game period, Man Utd beat Sabah FK 4-0, lost 2-0 at Atletico Madrid, and lost 4-1 at Como.
Manchester United played twice at Old Trafford in October, ending with an aggregate score of 1-4. It hasn’t been a crash or sudden drop-off in form either. They played three home games in September, ending with six goals for and four against.
That fragile defence will be pushed to breaking point by a Roma side that has already scored eight goals in this competition.
Combined, Manchester United and Roma have scored 13 and conceded 11 in the Champions League this season.
What I like about the total goals market is you’re not too interested in which team wins, who gets the goals, and when. A 3-0 home win pays the same as a 3-0 away win or a 2-2 draw. You only care about goals scored.
Armchair fans can follow this pick, and then sit back, relax, and celebrate every attack, shot, and goal. Your bet is live until the final whistle, but you could collect a profit well before the end of play.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 (bet365)
Bet explanation: We need more than two goals scored by both teams combined. You can follow this as a single bet or add it to your midweek accumulators, including Man Utd vs Roma Bet Builders.
Anytime scorer - Malen
I’ll finish with a bet at more attractive odds, taking Roma’s Donyell Malen to score at Old Trafford.
You may wish to aim higher and back him to score first, but I’m happy with the anytime scorer market. Your bet lasts for the entire time Malen is on the pitch, and you’re covered if he finds the net first, last, or anytime in between.
Why Malen?
The Dutch striker has already contributed to five Champions League goals. He has scored three times in three games and provided two assists. Only four other players can match that so far.
Those five goal contributions equal his personal best in a major European campaign. He also got to five in the 2020/21 UEFA Europa League campaign with PSV. The chance to set a new record on the big stage will drive Malen to a strong performance.
Need more convincing? Malen has recorded the joint-most touches in the opposition box so far this term.
Tip: Malen to score @ 6/5 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Donyell Malen must score for Roma against Manchester United in this exciting Champions League showdown.