Tribal Football

Bayern favourites to beat RB Leipzig and hand Kane his first major title

Jason Pettigrove
Bayern Munich players celebrate a goal during their 5-1 Bundesliga win over RB Leipzig in December, 2024
Bayern Munich players celebrate a goal during their 5-1 Bundesliga win over RB Leipzig in December, 2024Alexandra Beier / AFP
Saturday afternoon could finally see Harry Kane win his first career title as Bayern Munich head to RB Leipzig looking for the points that would make it mathematically impossible for the Bundesliga's second-placed team, Bayern Leverkusen, to catch them.

Unfortunately for the England captain and record goalscorer, he won't play any part in the game after receiving five yellow cards and, therefore, earning himself an ill-timed suspension. 

Advertisement
Advertisement

His importance to his team is self-evident, given that Kane has scored a league-high 24 goals in the Bundesliga this season already. 

Harry Kane celebrates after scoring for Bayern Munich against Heidenheim

Bayern's points average without him in the starting lineup is just 1.5 in 2024/25, compared to 2.6 with him in situ.

Leipzig have their own in-form hit-man in Benjamin Sesko, and his eight goals and four assists at home have only been bettered in the German top-flight by Kane (18 goal involvements at the Allianz Arena) and Eintracht Frankfurt's Hugo Ekitike (14 at Deutsche Bank Park).

The Slovenian has also scored in each of his last two Bundesliga games against Bayern.

Sensational first season for Bayern's Olise

Although Vincent Kompany doesn't have the luxury of his main striker to call upon, he will still have the enviable talent of Michael Olise on show, a player who has shone in his first season in Germany.

So much so that his 12 assists are a league high, and since detailed data collection began in 2004/05, no new Bayern signing has ever set up as many goals in a Bundesliga campaign.

No player has had a hand in more goals than Olise in the second half of the season either (11, the same as Serhou Guirassy).

Bayern's Michael Olise celebrates after scoring against Mainz
Bayern's Michael Olise celebrates after scoring against MainzMarcel Engelbrecht / firo Sportphoto / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP / Profimedia

That has to be a worry for the hosts who have allowed 90 big chances against them this season - only VfL Bochum (117) and Holstein Kiel (92) have allowed more.

Bayern as a team have created 154 big chances, by far the most in the league, so Leipzig need to reverse that particular narrative if they want to give themselves a chance of earning a Champions League spot at season's end.

Leipzig aware of the need for all three points

Leipzig interim boss, Zsolt Low, will be acutely aware that Borussia Dortmund, Mainz and Werder Bremen are three points or less behind them, and with 49 points from 31 games, this is RB Leipzig’s second-worst Bundesliga season.

They have only ever been worse off at this stage in 2017/18 (47 points), when they ultimately finished sixth and failed to qualify for the premier European tournament for the only time in their top-flight history.

A win against the champions-elect is, therefore, arguably needed more than ever, but history is against them.

The RB Leipzig squad in training ahead of the match against Bayern Munich

Bayern have only lost one of their last 10 competitive games away at Leipzig (W4, D5): 2-1 in the Bundesliga in March 2018. Furthermore, the hosts have never suffered a heavier defeat in the Bundesliga than their 5-1 loss in Munich earlier this season.

The Bavarians have also been in sensational form across the 24/25 campaign, losing only two of their first 31 games in the league season (W23, D6). The 75 points they're currently on (last managed back in 2016/17 under Carlo Ancelotti) is already more than the 72 they managed in 2023/24.

Their 14 clean sheets in the Bundesliga is a league high too, but interestingly, RB Leipzig rank second in this particular regard with 13 clean sheets. 

Goals likely to come early

If there are to be any goals in Saturday's game, they're almost certain to be scored in the opening hour, given that both clubs have conceded just 12 goals each in the final half hour of games - the joint lowest in the league.

Across the Bundesliga campaign more generally, Bayern have scored the most goals (35) in the final 30 minutes of matches, with Leipzig managing only 10 in that same time frame. Only Bochum have found the net fewer times (eight goals) in the final half hour.

A drop off in form from Leipzig has been marked too, with Die Rotten Bullen having only won four of their 14 games in the second half of this season (D7, L3). That's fewer than ever before from their first 14 games in the second half of a top-flight season.

Leroy Sane scores against RB Leipzig

To give that some sort of context, they recorded twice as many victories from their first 14 matches in the first half of this campaign.

For any number of reasons, this is a match that Leipzig can't lose, and what makes football the beautiful game is that anything can happen.

If Bayern are complacent in any way, the likes of Sesko, Xavi Simons and Lois Openda can take advantage.

The expectation is that it will be the Bavarians who will be celebrating at the end of the match, but that will only happen if the work on the training pitch is brought to the game and executed as well as it has been in other games througout 2024/25.

Follow RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich with Flashscore.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore