Tribal Football

Stats focus: Why England scrambling for ideas ahead of Slovakia Euros showdown

Jude Bellingham
Jude BellinghamLaLiga
In Group C, in which five of the six matches ended in draws, England were the only team to win a game: 1-0 against Serbia on matchday one.

This was followed by two tired draws against Denmark (1-1) and Slovenia (0-0), but these were enough to win the group.

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While all five other group winners scored at least four goals, England scored just two goals in 270 minutes. Criticism back home was correspondingly negative, with the team playing far too cautiously and looking for safety (after all, they only conceded one goal) and the nominally high-calibre offence hardly getting its skills on the pitch.

In the event of a win against Slovakia, a rematch of the last European Championship final, when the English will face Italian conquerors Switzerland in their round of 16 match first.

In the semi-finals, England would face a team from the Austria/Turkey/Netherlands/Romania quartet - the supposedly easier route to the final in Berlin. England could face Germany, Spain, France, Belgium or Portugal in the final.

Slovakia in the last 16 of the European Championship for the second time

In a very tight Group E, in which all four teams ended up with four points (a first at a European Championship finals), Slovakia finished third with three goals, making them one of the four best third-placed teams in the group. This is the second time they have reached the round of 16 at a European Championship since 2016, when the Slovaks lost 3-0 to Germany in the first knockout round.

They had previously met England on the final matchday of the group stage, where they drew 0-0 and both teams progressed to the round of 16 - albeit only as runners-up and third behind group winners Wales.

The parallel to 2016: Slovakia also took four points in the group stage with 3-3 goals - just like now in Germany! Only the order of the results was different back then: Slovakia started with a defeat in France (1-2 against Wales), now with a win (1:0 against Belgium).

With regard to the round of 16, the Opta statistics give the Slovaks only an 18 per cent chance against England, together with Georgia against Spain the lowest odds in the first knockout round:

Opta analysed England as European champions.
Opta analysed England as European champions.Opta

Early goals - and then nothing

Slovakia took a 1-0 lead in all three group matches, scoring all of their goals early in the game: in the seventh, 17th and 24th minute. However, the lead was only maintained against Belgium (final score 1-0), followed by a 2-1 defeat against Ukraine and a 1-1 draw against Romania.

In the defeat against Ukraine in particular, the game slipped away from the Slovaks as the match progressed - their own final offensive after falling behind then yielded nothing.

Slovakia only became dangerous again after going behind.
Slovakia only became dangerous again after going behind.Opta

England have not yet experienced the feeling of having to chase a 1-0 draw at this European Championship either, scoring both of their goals in the opening stages and both times to take the lead: against Serbia they made it 1-0 in the 13th minute, against Denmark in the 18th (final score 1-1).

Apart from England and Slovakia, only Denmark failed to score in the second half in the group stage - and the English, like only Spain and Belgium, did not concede a goal after the break.

In the 1-0 win against Serbia to start the group stage, England did not show much in attack in the second 45 minutes, almost only managing the lead:

In the second half, England stopped playing football.
In the second half, England stopped playing football.Opta

England's offence: Taboo zone penalty area

Despite having demonstrably world-class players in attack in the shape of Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka, England's attacking play at this European Championship is still lacking.

Are the strikers themselves failing to develop any penetrating power? Or are they simply being set up far too rarely by the midfielders? There is much more to be said in favour of this.

The expected goals value in the group stage was a miserable 2.19, undercut only by the eliminated teams from Serbia (2.11) and Scotland (0.95). Seven nations have an xg value of more than five at this tournament so far, including all the other favourites such as Germany, Spain, France and Portugal.

England are the only team with little going forward: in the three group matches, England have had 53 ball actions in the opposition penalty area - the average for all teams is 64. England's pass rate of 89.4 per cent is the third best of all teams, but the ball circulates far too often in the back rows:

England can't find a way into the penalty area.
England can't find a way into the penalty area.Opta

Dubravka plays a good tournament

In Martin Dubravka, Slovakia's goalkeeper is a player who knows the strikers of the English national team particularly well, having played in the Premier League for Newcastle United since the beginning of 2018 (interrupted by a short loan spell at Manchester United).

Dubravka was in goal for the Slovakian side at the 2021 European Championships, conceding seven goals in the three group games and saving just 61 per cent of the shots on goal.

At the current tournament, only three goals were conceded in the group stage with 79 per cent of shots on goal saved - in absolute terms, only three keepers saved more shots than Dubravka (12) at the 2024 European Championships.

Dubravka does what he can.
Dubravka does what he can.Opta

England, penalties and the experience of Gelsenkirchen

The knockout round also marks the start of the penalty shoot-out period - a horror for England. At World Cups, three out of four penalty shoot-outs were lost (75 per cent), at European Championships four out of five (80 per cent) - most recently even four in a row, including in the 2021 final against Italy.

One of these lost penalty shoot-outs was in Gelsenkirchen at the 2006 World Cup, the venue for the European Championship round of 16 against Slovakia.

The quarter-final 18 years ago was against Portugal; after a goalless 120 minutes, penalties had to be taken and England lost 3-1.

Only Owen Hargreaves of the four English scorers scored at the time; Lampard, Gerrard and Carragher all missed.

However, England have already played once at the 2024 European Championships in the arena where second-division team Schalke 04 usually play, on match day 1 in a 1-0 win against Serbia - England's only victory at this tournament to date.

The game made the headlines more because there were some organisational problems around the stadium and the city centre. However, these should have been resolved by the fourth and final tournament match in Gelsenkirchen.

Slovakia with the oldest team

Slovakia have fielded the three oldest teams in the 2024 European Championship tournament so far: against Ukraine, the average age of the starting eleven was 30 years and 233 days, against Belgium it was 30 years and 229 days and most recently against Romania it was 30 years and 192 days. However, three of the players who started against the Romanians were at least 35 years old (Dubravka, Pekarik, Kucka).

In any case, the squad is experienced and ruthless, helped by the experience from top international leagues that almost all of the players can boast. The team in the match against Romania was correspondingly colourful:

Slovakia could also rely on experience against England.
Slovakia could also rely on experience against England.Opta