This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+
With the World Cup 2026 kick-off almost upon us, Flashscore is analysing each of the 12 groups. On this page, we focus on an intriguing Group I, comprising France, Senegal, Iraq, and Norway, examining which nation will top the group, qualify, and identifying some of the key players.
On paper, it appears to be a race between Norway and Senegal to finish second behind Didier Deschamps' stars. The strength in depth of the 2022 finalists, France, is an ominous prospect for their opponents, which is why most bookmakers and bettors expect Les Bleus to finish at the top of their group.
The questions are around the other spots. Could Senegal be the dark horse of the group, or perhaps the Norwegians will secure a path to the knockout rounds for the first time in nearly three decades?
Most pundits have Iraq as the whipping boys, but you can take nothing for granted.
Group I at a Glance
- Group I includes France, Senegal, Iraq, and Norway.
- France are the highest-ranking team in the pool and the betting favourites.
- Norway are are back on the grandest stage after a 26-year absence
- Senegal will enter their third World Cup in a row and their fourth overall.
- Iraq were the final team to secure their spot at the tournament, defeating Bolivia in their play-off.
Group Winner and Qualification
In this section, we'll discuss the teams most likely to qualify from Group I, according to the bookmakers' odds.
Winner: France is a two-time World champion, boasting a world-class squad. They're the heavy betting favourite to top Group I.
2nd place: Norway are highly regarded by bookies, who have them as their second favourite in the group winner betting.
Dark horse: A strong start would put Senegal on a path to qualification. They are third in the pool betting.
To finish bottom: Iraq are projected to struggle at this level and finish in fourth place, as shown in their long betting odds to win the group.
France are the market leaders in Group I betting, and they deserve to be, with it being most likely that France will qualify at a stroll. When betting on a runner-up or playing the qualification markets, Norway provide the value. It's no mean feat, but the Norwegians have an excellent chance of beating Senegal to second place.
Team-by-Team Breakdown
France
France once again arrive at a World Cup carrying the pressure of being among the main favourites. Didier Deschamps has rebuilt parts of the squad since the 2018 title, but the mentality remains the same: compete to reach the final stages and expect nothing less than a title challenge.
The French squad combines established stars with a new generation that is beginning to take control of the national team. Mike Maignan has become the clear No.1 goalkeeper, while William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano now lead the defence. In midfield, Aurélien Tchouaméni continues as the tactical reference point, with Adrien Rabiot bringing balance and experience alongside him.
Going forward, few teams can match France’s depth. Mbappé remains the face of the project and is expected to play an even more central attacking role during this tournament. Around him, Deschamps has assembled an explosive group of forwards and wingers, including Dembélé, Thuram, Olise, Barcola and Cherki, while youngsters like Désiré Doué and Akliouche add even more creativity and unpredictability.
One of the biggest talking points around the squad was the absence of Eduardo Camavinga. Deschamps opted for a more attack-heavy group rather than carrying extra midfielders, especially after Camavinga’s difficult season with injuries at Real Madrid. Randal Kolo Muani also missed out after losing momentum at club level, while Jean-Philippe Mateta earned his place thanks to his goals and physical presence in the Premier League.
France still look like one of the most complete teams in the competition. They have quality, experience, athleticism and enough attacking solutions to hurt opponents in different ways, which is why many see them as serious contenders to win the tournament once again.
Strengths and weaknesses:
France have elite attacking depth across every position.
Mbappé gives them one of the most dangerous players in the world.
The squad blends proven experience with exciting young talent.
Their pace in transition can overwhelm opponents quickly.
Breaking down compact defensive teams is not always easy for them.
Their attacking style can occasionally leave spaces at the back.
Senegal
When checking the betting, Senegal are the third most likely team to top Group I. Will they advance to the knockout rounds with confidence? The Lions of Teranga have never won this trophy, but they famously reached the quarter-finals in 2002. They arrive as formidable competitors but will face some scrutiny after the chaos of the AFCON final.
Few African teams arrive in North America with more legitimate ambitions than Senegal. The current generation has spent years competing at the highest level and enters the tournament with the expectation of challenging for a place in the knockout rounds rather than merely participating.
The road to the World Cup has not been entirely smooth. The fallout from the last AFCON final continues to linger around the national team after a controversial ending that left players, coaches and supporters feeling they had been denied a major title. Inside the camp, however, that frustration has largely been transformed into motivation.
The squad itself remains one of the deepest on the continent. Familiar names continue to form the backbone of the team, while several younger players have gained valuable experience in Europe's top leagues. One situation worth monitoring is the condition of captain Kalidou Koulibaly, who missed the recent friendly against the United States and is still working his way back from a muscular issue.
What makes Senegal dangerous is their balance. They possess the physical strength traditionally associated with the Lions of Teranga, but also enough technical quality and tactical maturity to manage different types of matches. After an underwhelming exit in Qatar, there is a feeling within the group that this World Cup represents another opportunity to prove they belong among the strongest nations outside Europe and South America.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Senegal combine physical power with strong technical ability.
Their squad features players with extensive experience in major tournaments.
The team is tactically flexible and comfortable in different game states.
Their defensive structure is usually difficult to break down.
Injuries to key veterans could become a concern during the tournament.
Creating consistent chances can be difficult when forced to dominate possession.
Norway
Norway arrive at the 2026 World Cup with one of the most exciting generations in their history. While Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard naturally attract most of the attention, Ståle Solbakken has built a squad filled with players competing regularly in Europe’s top leagues.
Norway are not simply a counter-attacking side. Solbakken prefers aggressive pressing, quick passing sequences and playing out from the back, although the team can still adapt to a more physical Scandinavian style when needed. Sander Berge provides balance in midfield, Ødegaard is the creative leader, Antonio Nusa offers pace from the left and Haaland remains the focal point in attack, often supported by Alexander Sørloth drifting from wider areas.
One of the few doubts comes in goal, where Ørjan Nyland remains the experienced option despite limited minutes at club level. Egil Selvik continues to push for the starting role after a solid season with Watford.
Norway may lack recent World Cup experience, but this squad has enough quality and tactical discipline to become one of the dangerous outsiders in Group I.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Norway have elite attacking talent led by Haaland and Ødegaard.
They are organised and dangerous in transition.
The squad is tactically flexible and physically strong.
Many players arrive in good form from top European leagues.
Goalkeeping is still a potential weakness.
They lack recent experience at major international tournaments.
Iraq
If you’re looking to bet on a team to finish bottom of their group will find Iraq as the favourites. Ranked 57th in the world by FIFA, the Lions of Mesopotamia will be looking to provide some shocks in the group and steal a point or three from the others.
Iraq arrive at the World Cup with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Their qualification ended a 40-year wait and instantly became one of the biggest sporting moments in the country's recent history. For many supporters, simply returning to the tournament is already an achievement. For the players, it is an opportunity to prove they belong on this stage.
What this squad lacks in star power, it attempts to compensate for with commitment and collective effort. Most of the group developed outside Europe's elite leagues, which naturally creates questions about how they will cope against opponents packed with Champions League-level talent. That reality has shaped the team's identity.
Under Graham Arnold, Iraq are expected to lean heavily on organisation, defensive discipline and moments of opportunism. They know long spells of possession will be rare against teams such as France or Norway, so much of their game plan revolves around staying compact, competing physically and taking advantage of set pieces or transition moments.
The challenge is obvious. Few groups offer less margin for error, and Iraq will face forwards and midfielders operating at a level rarely encountered during qualification. Yet international tournaments often reward belief as much as reputation, and this team has spent the last year thriving in situations where few expected them to succeed.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Iraq are comfortable playing without the ball and defending deep.
The team shows strong character in difficult situations.
Set pieces can be an important source of goals.
The squad lacks top-level international experience.
Creativity can become an issue against organised defensive blocks.
Key Players to Watch
Kylian Mbappé (France): A spectacular option in the World Cup Golden Boot winner market. Mbappé is the focal point of a stunning attack famed for scoring goals on the biggest stages. He’ll enjoy plenty of game time, and he is highly likely to put up impressive numbers against Senegal, Iraq, and Norway.
Sadio Mané (Senegal): Bettors should pay close attention to Senegal's talismanic attacker. He plays a key role in their setup, driving transitions and getting his team up the pitch. A great way to bet on him in Group I is in the anytime scorer and assists markets.
Erling Haaland (Norway): The Norwegian fans absolutely adore their star man. Haaland is the standout name in a talented squad and has scored an incredible number of goals for club and country. Erling brings elite experience, and his recent form is nothing short of remarkable. Backing him to be Norway's top scorer is a very safe play.
Aymen Hussein (Iraq): While there aren't many household names in the Iraq squad, Aymen Hussein is the team's main attacking threat. If Iraq manage to breach defences at the World Cup, Hussein is highly likely to be involved as either the scorer or in the build-up. Target him in player props or the team top-scorer markets.
Group Dynamics
France vs. Iraq is a matchup where France will likely dominate, scoring a few goals in the process. You can back them to win on the handicap or look at player goalscorer markets.
Norway vs. Senegal is going to be the shootout for the second spot and will most likely be a closely fought affair. Wager on low total goals.
Senegal vs. Iraq will see Senegal looking to take all three points and boost their goal difference. Look at over 2.5 goals or a player to assist like Mane.
Norway will aim to open their account against Iraq, an ideal opportunity for the Europeans to get their first three points of the group stage.
France take on Senegal in Matchday 1. Opening group games can be cagey, low-scoring affairs, meaning under 2.5 goals or "No" on Both Teams to Score (BTTS) offer strong value.
Group I predictions
Now that we’ve covered everything worth knowing about World Cup Group I and the current state of the betting, I’ll reveal my predictions. Here are my best bets for June.
France to win Group I @ 2/5 (bet365)France to win Group I @ 2/5 (bet365)
France are second favourites to win the World Cup at 5/1, and they should have enough quality to dominate Group I. This looks like a winnable section for Les Bleus, and if they start quickly, they’ll take some stopping.
Group Forecast @ 5/6 (bet365)Group Forecast @ 5/6 (bet365)
If you’re looking for a stronger price, the forecast market is worth considering. France look the most likely winners, while Norway should have enough to finish second. If Norway beat Iraq and France handle Senegal in the opening games, a France/Norway forecast will be in a strong position.
Gain an advantage with Flashscore
Did you know the Flashscore app has the tools to strengthen your chances of beating the bookies and making a profit on your World Cup bets?
In addition to our in-depth World Cup outright and match predictions, users enjoy updated head-to-head stats, betting odds, injury news, predicted line-ups, and super-fast results. Use the data to make a strong prediction and then keep tabs on up-to-the-minute goals.
Searching for the best bookmakers to take you through the World Cup? You want an app with generous odds, pre-match and live betting, a long list of outright markets, cash-out, bonuses, and more. You’ll find the main sportsbooks at Flashscore.
Want a free bet, enhanced odds, or cashback promotion on the World Cup? Visit our betting bonuses page for the latest offers.
Odds correct at time of writing, subject to change.