It’s been one of the fairytale stories of the season so far. Hearts are on track to become the first club that isn’t Rangers or Celtic to lift the Scottish Premier League since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen all the way back in 1984-85.
Their form hasn’t been great of late, however, and Hearts’ recent 3-2 defeat to Edinburgh rivals Hibernian means Wilfried Nancy’s side are just three points off, now that they’ve figured out how to win some games again.
So, can Hearts actually go on to win it, or will they inevitably be chased down by a resurgent Celtic as we enter the second half of the season?
Recruitment key to Hearts’ incredible start
Derek McInnes’ side are the first not to be Rangers or Celtic to be top of the league heading into Christmas since 1993. If you couldn’t tell already, the Scottish Premier League really is a two-horse race, Hearts leading for as long as they have is a remarkable achievement regardless of what happens at the end of the season.
Brighton owner Tony Bloom, renowned for his use of analytics, invested a healthy £10 million into the club in June, and people scoffed when he spoke of seeking to break the glass ceiling “within ten years.”
With Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics firm taking control of Hearts’ recruitment, the club signed eleven players from across Iceland and Portugal, including the club-record £1.7 million arrival of Ageu from Santa Clara.
That partnership is already bearing fruit. Claudio Braga and Alexandros Kiziridis, recruited from the relative obscurity of Norway’s second tier and the Slovakian league respectively, have impressed during an unbeaten start to the season.
Hearts didn’t lose their first game until the end of November, a 1-0 defeat to Aberdeen, while Celtic and Rangers were flailing under Russell Martin, statistically the worst manager in the club’s history, and Brendan Rogers, who had seemingly lost all interest.
In that run, Hearts managed to beat both of the big two, first a 2-0 away win at Ibrox, and then a 3-1 home victory over Celtic. A dip on form from the end of October until the start of December, in which Hearts won one of six before beating Celtic again on December 7th, means the reigning champions are now just three points off the top.
Celtic finally finding form under Nancy
It was a rough start to life at Parkhead for new manager Wilfried Nancy with four defeats in his first four games, including the 2-1 loss to Hearts. Fans had already written him off and were calling for the Frenchman to be sacked just as quickly as he was hired.
The reality is Nancy came in wanting to play a different type of system than this current crop of Celtic players were used to. He had a lot of success using a back three while at Columbus Crew, so he wanted to do the same at Celtic.
Recent wins against Aberdeen and Livingston, sides that are admittedly not the best, show that Nancy’s attacking drive is starting to come to fruition, with a combined xG of 8.55, 49 shots, 17 of which were on target, and 13 big chances created across those two games. Those are absurd numbers.
Celtic did still give away a few chances in those games, Aberdeen had an xG of 0.91and they managed to get on the scoresheet, on another day they could have maybe bagged one more, but as a whole, Nancy’s side are really starting to take opponents by the throat.
What do Hearts’ underlying numbers look like?
Unfortunately, and somewhat predictably for Hearts, their league position is a little kind when we look at their underlying metrics. They’re third for xG (31), third for big chances created (45), third for shots on target per 90 minutes (5.3), and second for touches in the opposition box (548).
Now, that’s all fine, Celtic especially have a lot more of the ball in their games while Hearts are more willing to give up possession and hit sides on the counter. It’s their defensive numbers that are a bit more of an issue.
Hearts are joint first tackles per 90 (18.2) alongside Falkirk, who are currently seventh in the SPL, tenth for xG conceded, so they’re conceding more high value chances that Celtic and Rangers, and sixth for clearances per 90 (31.2).
Essentially, Hearts are pretty busy defensively, and they’ve conceded more goals than both Celtic and Rangers, 17 compared to 16 and 15, respectively. Again, these are ‘end of the world’ numbers, but it’s all very finally balanced, and Celtic especially have experience on their side.
Verdict
Hearts are still in the driver’s seat in this season’s SPL title race, but Celtic are too far behind them. Every point counts from now until the end of the campaign, and McInnes’ lads will need to make sure they’re as perfect as they can possibly be if they want to get their hands on that trophy.