Not so long ago, Leeds looked doomed to the same fate that every other promoted club had suffered over the past couple of seasons, two wins and three draws in their last five Premier League games marks an impressive turn around, however.
They’re not entirely out of danger yet as they sit in 16th, seven points above the relegation zone, but for the first time in a while, they can start to look up as they sit three points off Champions League side Newcastle in 16th.
Leeds’ 1-1 draw with high-flying Sunderland is the latest in a run of fantastic results against sides competing for European places. So, how has this turn around happened?
A change in formation
Leeds had won just three Premier League games in their opening 13 games, with two of those wins coming against Wolves and West Ham, before they hosted Chelsea at Elland Road at the start of December.
In all of those games, Farke stuck with largely ineffective 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 formations that were far too easy for opponents to play through. The game against Man City was the last time Leeds played a back four, against Chelsea it completely shifted.
Farke clearly recognised that Cheslea struggle against back threes, so that’s what he did, deploying a 3-5-2, packing out with midfield with Ao Tanaka, Ethan Ampadu, and Anton Stach to limit ball progression and have three large centre backs clear absolutely everything that came their way.
The West Yorkshire club have played a back three/five since then. Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijik, and Jaka Bijol are all large but surprisingly mobile centre-backs, while Gabriel Gudmundsson and Jayden Bogle provide the width as wingbacks.
Their midfield is seemingly perfectly suited for this change in formation too. Tanaka, Ampadu, and Stach offer a certain stability, but Farke has also stuck Brendan Aaronson in there to help add a creative spark, like he did in the 1-1 draw with Sunderland.
Leeds are now much harder for opposition attackers to break down. They typically defend in a low block, especially against stronger sides, packing out the centre of the park and having their defenders get on the end of any ball that comes their way.
Getting the best out of Dominic Calvert-Lewin
There was a bit of a collective scoff from Leeds fans when they signed Calvert-Lewin on a free, and it’s hard to blame them. The striker has been streaky at best throughout his career, plus a couple of injury hit seasons with Everton, it didn’t exactly feel like an inspiring signing.
If anyone says they expected him to go on a six-game scoring streak, the best in his career and Leeds’ Premier League history, is a liar, but here we are, and Calvert-Lewin is carrying Leeds away from the relegation zone and hopefully to safety come the end of the season.
It sounds simple, but what Calvert-Lewin is doing is getting into the right position at the right time. If you look at where he has scored all of his eight Premier League goals, they’re remarkably central, with four of them being inside the six-yard box.
They’re not pretty but he’s clinical, with his eight goals coming from a non-penalty xG of 5.93 and just 17 shots on target. Calvert-Lewin isn’t going to dribble past four defenders and lob the ‘keeper, but who cares, they don’t count for more.
What are Leeds’ underlying numbers looking like?
Essentially what they’re saying is that Leeds will be fine. Farke’s side are overperforming in a lot of ways, especially on the attacking front, with the tenth highest xG (27), tenth most shots per 90 minutes (4.2), eighth most big chances created (42), and 12th most touches in the opposition box (429).
Defensively it’s clear that they’re busy more often than not. Leeds are eighth for xG conceded at 25.4, sixth for interceptions made per 90 minutes with 8.7, sixth in tackles made per 90 with 17.9, and fourth for penalties conceded with three.
They do win the ball back in the opposition third pretty frequently, however, sitting in third with 4.3 per 90, so that will skew their defensive numbers somewhat. Overall though, Leeds are playing like a midtable side.
Verdict
It’s all a cycle. Good performances against top sides breed confidence in players that were struggling for a while, and Farke’s tactical shift has done exactly that. Looking at their squad now, it’s fair to say that Leeds are built to play a back three/five, and with Calvert-Lewin firing at the other end, it’s been quite a turn around.