Tribal Football

Analysis: Forest have their work cut out despite decent home record against Arsenal

Arsenal's Martin Odegaard is put under pressure by Nottingham Forest's Murillo
Arsenal's Martin Odegaard is put under pressure by Nottingham Forest's MurilloČTK / imago sportfotodienst / IMAGO

Arsenal head to the City Ground looking to keep pace with Premier League leaders Manchester City, but in the knowledge that in four of the last five visits to Nottingham Forest, they've not even got on the scoresheet.

Indeed, the last two fixtures in Nottingham between the two teams saw 40 shots at goal, yet both matches ended goalless. 

Advertisement
Advertisement

Glasner has won only one league match with Forest

Forest themselves have failed to score in each of their last four matches against the North Londoners, and furthermore, have won only one of their last 11 league meetings against them, drawing two more and losing the other eight. 

With the Midlands-based side languishing in 15th place, they could certainly do with three points, though Oliver Glasner has only managed one win in the league with his new side and, in fact, has won only five English top-flight matches in his last 29 (D9, L15).

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Recent head-to-head results
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Though he received a warm welcome back at Selhurst Park last week when Forest took on Crystal Palace, the visitors slumped to a 3-1 defeat.

That was despite Forest having 24 shots in the match and racking up 3.36 expected goals (xG). Eight big chances were the most by any team that went on to lose since Blackburn's game against Newcastle United in February 2012.

Set-piece prowess has deserted Arsenal

Glasner will relish the possibility of testing himself against Mikel Arteta, though, particularly as the Gunners have another Champions League assignment just a few days after this match against Bayern Munich, and that could affect the Spaniard's team selection.

Arteta's side have been renowned for their set-piece prowess, and yet in 2026/27, this area of their collective game has been sorely lacking and could be another area for Glasner to exploit.

In fact, the visitors haven't managed to score a non-penalty set-piece goal in six league games this season, and another failure to do so in this game will equal their longest such drought (a seven-match run from January to March 2025).

If Forest do want to upset the odds and earn three points, then their attacking players need to do much, much better in front of goal.

Delap's lack of output

Just five goals scored in six matches is the joint second-worst output in the entire division, with Dan Ndoye being the only Forest player to score more than once.

Liam Delap, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White have just one goal each, and Delap's incredible miss at Palace perfectly encompasses their scoring woes this season.

Nottingham Forest's predicted line-up vs Arsenal
Nottingham Forest's predicted line-up vs ArsenalFlashscore

His conversion rate is 7.1% from 14 shots in 26/27, and just two efforts have been on target. For a player who cost the Tricky Trees a club-record fee in the region of £50m, that's a terrible return.

Follow Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal with Flashscore!

Gibbs-White can at least hold his head high, given that he has created more chances in the top flight (17) than any other player bar Brighton and Hove Albion's Pascal Gross (18).

Arsenal's predicted line-up vs Nottingham Forest
Arsenal's predicted line-up vs Nottingham ForestFlashscore

15 open-play chances created, seven big chances created and 1.87 xA (expected assists), see him leading those metrics ahead of any other player in the division, too.

That, then, brings into sharp focus just how poor his attacking teammates have been, and a major reason why Forest find themselves struggling at the wrong end of the Premier League.

Arsenal have won 14 of their last 17 league games

Interestingly, if Gibbs-White and his colleagues can get off to a good start, they may have rich pickings in this match.

That's because Arsenal have gone behind in three of their last four league games, which is as many as in the previous 25 combined.

To give context as to just how difficult an assignment this could be for the hosts, however, they will be playing a Gunners side that have won 14 of their last 17 Premier League games (L3).

Nine of those victories have been by one goal, and over the past two seasons, they've won 17 matches by a one-goal margin, which is the most out of any team in the top five leagues in Europe.

They are beatable, as Brighton showed recently when they deservedly won 3-0, though those sorts of results are now the exception rather than the rule.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Win probability
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Win probabilityFlashscore

In order for any team to beat Arsenal these days, they have to work for it, and given the Gunners' recent record, that's easier said than done for their opponents.

Glasner might point to Forest's per-game averages in the Premier League for expected goals (1.72 xG), touches in the opposition’s box (27.3), shots (17.7),  and big chances (3.5) being their best in any of the last five seasons, but that counts for nothing if they can't translate such positive figures into wins.

Prefer Tribal Football on GoogleSee our stories more often
AddAdd on Google

Related Articles