This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+
The 0-3 defeat that Liverpool suffered at the hands of Manchester City a little over a week ago was hurtful, but the Reds have rallied.
They put six past LASK in the Champions League and then defeated a tricky opponent in Brentford on Saturday.
The Bees are formidable on home soil, but Liverpool headed home with a 2-1 win and invaluable game time for Alexander Isak on his return from injury.
Villarreal are a strange side to get a handle on. They’ve beaten a classy opponent in Napoli in the UCL, but earlier in the season lost four games in a row. And their last outing, a 0-0 draw with Elche, is hardly a glowing reference ahead of a trip to Anfield.
Liverpool vs Villarreal Tips
Liverpool to Win @ 1/2 (Bet365)
Liverpool Over 1.5 Goals @ 4/9 (Bet365)
Match Goals Range: 2-4 @ 8/15 (Bet365)
Odds courtesy of Bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Some home truths
Liverpool are excellent at Anfield on these big European nights, and they are immeasurably better when Isak is in their ranks.
Note too that Cody Gakpo was on the bench against Brentford, so presumably he’s nearing full fitness, although they did suffer a blow on Saturday when Dominik Szoboszlai suffered a hamstring injury, meaning he will be out for some time.
Villarreal have never won a continental game against English opposition, losing each of their last nine to Premier League sides in UEFA’s competitions. Can we really expect them to end that hoodoo on Tuesday?
Before beating Napoli a few weeks ago, Villarreal had lost seven consecutive Champions League games, which perhaps offers a glimpse at how they struggle against elite opponents.
We’d certainly put Liverpool in that category, especially now Andoni Iraola nearly has a full squad to choose from, and with the Spaniards having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 Champions League outings, the stats point towards a Liverpool victory at Anfield.
Tip: Liverpool to Win @ 1/2 (Bet365)
Explanation: If Liverpool win, our bet lands. If they don’t, our selection loses.
Following the Trend
Villarreal just don’t keep Champions League clean sheets. Only three times in their last 33 games in the competition have they kept their opponents to nil.
Aside from their 0-0 draw with Elche on Saturday, the Yellow Submarine haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. They’ve conceded two or more in five of their last 11 games in all competitions, so confidence is up that Liverpool can add to that number on Tuesday.
The Reds have put three past Tottenham and six past LASK in their last two cup clashes, and scored twice against Brentford in the league on Saturday. With Isak and potentially Gakpo back among the ranks, they are a much more dangerous proposition too.
Cast your mind back to September and Liverpool scored twice at Anfield against Atletico Madrid. There’s an argument that Atleti are simply a better team than Villarreal, so why wouldn’t we back the Reds to find the net twice or more in front of their own fans once again?
And when Liverpool and Villareal last met in the Champions League (2021-22), the Reds scored twice at homes and three times against them away.
Tip: Liverpool Over 1.5 Goals @ 4/9 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Liverpool score two or more goals.
The Numbers Game
Let’s backtrack a second. We expect Liverpool to win and score two or more goals… so therefore backing the match goals range selection of 2-4 is logical.
We may be proven wrong on Tuesday, but it just feels as though Liverpool are a better team than Villarreal; the Spaniards may score once, but it feels hard to see a scenario in which they put two or more past Liverpool at Anfield given their recent form.
The beauty of these match goals picks is that they cover a range of scenarios. With a foundation of Liverpool scoring 2+ goals, we have correct score options of 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 covered… this is a lower risk way of backing those outcomes than the correct score market specifically.
Tip: Match Goals Range: 2-4 @ 8/15 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if there are two, three or four goals in the game.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: Match result odds
These odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.