FIFA’s projection of $30.5 billion in economic output for the World Cup, based on a 50/50 split between domestic and international visitors, is being challenged by industry experts. Jan Freitag of CoStar told Forbes: “It was not true when it was said and it’s not going to come true now.” Survey data from the AHLA (American Hotel and Lodging Association) indicates that visa barriers and geopolitical concerns are significantly suppressing international demand.
In Kansas City for example, 85-90% of hoteliers report bookings below a typical June or July. Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle see nearly 80% of hotels lagging behind normal summer demand, with many calling the tournament a “non-event.” Los Angeles and New York City also report bookings in line with or below usual levels.
Miami stands out, with 55% of hotels reporting bookings ahead of expectations. In Atlanta, 50% of hotels are meeting or exceeding typical summer benchmarks. Dallas and Houston report bookings below World Cup expectations but consistent with a normal summer, indicating “limited incremental lift” according to the AHLA.
Challenges for international fans
Visa delays are closing the booking window for international fans. Freitag told Forbes: “If a team has a fan base that needs a visa, that time is getting short, or has already passed.” He added: “If a country’s fans aren’t able to get visas, then you rely on Americans that follow that team or people who have relocated here and are already in the country.”
Alan Fyall of the University of Central Florida noted: “The tournament really doesn’t heat up until the end of June. That’s where we could see pickup. It'll look great on TV, but it won’t be a tourism bonanza.”