Tribal Football

Analysis: A look at a fascinating World Cup quarter-final between Norway and England

England's Harry Kane celebrates scoring against Croatia, earlier in the World Cup
England's Harry Kane celebrates scoring against Croatia, earlier in the World CupNick Potts / PA Images / Profimedia

Miami Stadium is the setting on Saturday where England and Norway fans will find out if there's still a chance football is coming home, or if Norway are going to power on into uncharted World Cup territory.

The fate of both national teams arguably lies at the feet of their centre-forwards. Prior to the game, Erling Haaland had seven goals to his name, whilst Harry Kane was just one behind in the race for the Golden Boot.

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12 years since the last meeting

Both, though, would surely pass up the opportunity of personal accolades if it meant getting their hands on the big prize.

In the Round of 16, Norway dispatched a disappointing Brazil side 2-1, thanks to a Haaland brace, whilst Kane was also on target as the Three Lions became only the third side in history to beat El Tri at the Azteca Stadium in an epic 3-2 victory.

Norway v England - Recent head-to-head results
Norway v England - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

It's been 12 years since these two countries met, and on that occasion, England came out on top in the friendly thanks to a slender 1-0 victory, the goal coming courtesy of a Wayne Rooney penalty. That match was also the fourth meeting in a row in which England had kept a clean sheet.

In the 12 games they've faced each other over the years, the Three Lions also hold the overall advantage, having won seven, drawn three and lost just two. Both losses have come in World Cup qualifying, with Norway winning 2-0 in June 1993 and 2-1 in September 1981.

Norway's shaky defence

Much of the striking prowess of either side - and Messrs. Kane and Haaland - is likely to also be dictated by the defensive nous of both back fours.

Of late, England have fared much better in this regard, having only let in four goals in their last six games, five of which they've won and the other drawn. 

By contrast, Norway have conceded 10 goals despite scoring 13, winning four of their last six, drawing one and losing one. In fact, in 11 of their last 12 games, they've not managed to keep a clean sheet.

To beat Brazil, however, was a most notable victory, and was one of 16 wins from their last 21 internationals, of which they've lost just two (D3), including a 4-1 defeat to France at this World Cup.

England players on a knife edge

If Norway are to beat England, then they'll need to achieve something that's proven impossible for them to date, and that's emerging victorious against a UEFA opponent at the World Cup. 

In six previous attempts to do so, they've lost four and drawn the other two, though it's also worth pointing out that the Three Lions have lost five of their last six knockout games at the World Cup when playing a European side.

It will be interesting to see how Thomas Tuchel decides to play this one, too, given that Jarell Quansah is suspended after his red card against Mexico, and all of Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Nico O'Reilly and Marc Guehi are just one yellow card away from missing a potential semi-final against either Argentina or Switzerland.

Not to mention the issues that Tuchel has had at right back because of Reece James' injury and Djed Spence's nervousness.

Winner takes all

Stale Solbakken's only real concern is over David Moller Wolfe, as, other than that, he can report a clean bill of health. 

The game will be another chance for Antonio Nusa to shine, and give potential purchasers, Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle United, some serious food for thought.

The major question facing the Norway manager is whether to play a high pressing game against England and risk being hit on the counter, or whether to play a waiting game and look for Haaland more towards the latter stages of the game, in order to get their noses in front and then see the match out.

Norway v England - Live win probability
Norway v England - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

A winner-takes-all scenario means that the stakes couldn't be higher, and all of the pre-match pressure will be on the Three Lions to deliver again.

Norway have already surpassed all expectations, and whilst they're not at the tournament just to enjoy themselves, the players know that a quarter-final berth is beyond their wildest dreams.

Get to the semis, and they will fancy their chances in a one-off game to make it to the final.

Follow the match with Flashscore here.

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