As we approach Liverpool versus Manchester City with 13 points separating the two sides and the hosts in free-fall, it is tempting to look back with nostalgia on this great rivalry; to think wistfully of the Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola era as if it is already in the past.
Liverpool no longer a contender
Certainly there will be no title battle this season, and even if Klopp's time at Anfield is not coming to an end many wonder if, as in his seventh year at Borussia Dortmund, the seventh year at Liverpool is a moment of great exhalation; the sound and fury over as quickly as it began. He has come back from a difficult season before, finishing third in 2020/21 before winning 96 points last year, but even in the campaign when Liverpool lost 7-2 to Aston Villa and appeared all at sea they had 17 points after eight matches. This year, they have just ten.
If this really is the end of an unforgettable period in English football history – one every bit as iconic as Arsene Wenger's battle with Sir Alex Ferguson – then we should, at least, be treated to a fitting finale on Sunday. This match has all the hallmarks of another high-scoring, end-to-end classic, albeit with a substantial risk that Man City will prove their superiority and put an emphatic full stop on the rivalry with a big win.
But not necessarily. Liverpool's 7-1 win at Rangers on Wednesday was a further example, after the 3-2 defeat at Arsenal, that they still have the firepower – the venom in the final third – to score goals and cause Man City all kinds of trouble. To do so will require quite a few tweaks, although even without these Liverpool are in a surprisingly strong position, because Man City aren't as strong as most people think…
Haaland brings Guardiola rethink
Erling Haaland has been an undeniable triumph so far, his preposterous goalscoring record making a mockery not just of opponents but, arguably, of Guardiola's obsession over tactical details. He is a cheat code of sorts, allowing Man City to play almost on autopilot, no longer needing their manager as he watches on, detached, from the sidelines. Yet there is a downside to Haaland's presence and the way it has radically altered City's setup.
He is not a good presser - in the 21st percentile among forwards, according to FBRef - and already this season we have seen how this can allow the opponent to get their heads up and counter-attack more efficiently, as against Crystal Palace (who took a 2-0 lead) and Newcastle United (who drew 3-3). Their total number of pressures per game is down from 111.9 in 2021/22 to 97.1 this year. Consequently there is a distinct possibility that Liverpool's defenders will find a way through the first line of the City defence with relative ease, opening up space in midfield to produce the sort of end-to-end game that clearly favours them.
What's more, Haaland's static demeanour also makes him a traditional centre-forward, thus disconnecting him slightly from the City midfielders. Guardiola has looked to solve this issue by sitting his full-backs in central midfield alongside Rodri, allowing Kevin de Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan to roam higher (and wider) to get close to Haaland, but this has still forced City to become slightly more stretched when on the ball, in turn forcing a more direct approach. Tellingly, Man City's 'medium' length passes are up from 278.0 to 308.7 per game this season.
A more elongated City that is not as sharp in the press is good news for Liverpool, who love to counter-attack with speed and will do everything in their power to stretch the game. At Arsenal, this included punting long balls forward as often as possible to hit Klopp's front four, and while he is unlikely to be so kamikaze this time – switching from 4-2-4 to 4-3-3 – these long passes will be a feature. On the counter, they can weave past Haaland and look to release the forwards in behind a Man City defence that is missing the injured Kyle Walker, normally the man with the speed to cover for Guardiola's high line.
How Liverpool can win
But for Liverpool to win they will need to fix their own flaws, too. Throughout this season Klopp's side have failed to provide adequate support for the full-backs, which is largely to do with a waning press resulting from the fact they are missing Sadio Mane's energy in their reconfigured, and still learning, front line. Low confidence compounds the problem in a vicious cycle, and as a result Liverpool's midfielders are failing to control the wide areas.
This needs fixing with tactical changes coming from the dugout, although it will certainly help if Klopp picks a three (ensuring Fabinho and Thiago Alcantara both start) and if the full-backs are reined in a little. Trent Alexander-Arnold's injury should give Liverpool the chance to play Joe Gomez here and shift to a back three when in possession, something Klopp has not done before but ought to consider.
If Liverpool can do those things, tightening up in midfield and supporting more cautious full-backs, then they stand a chance of capitalising on the flaws in the new Man City model. These are flaws that few have exposed, but it should be noted they have had a very easy set of fixtures; so far this season City have played five of the current bottom six plus Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Manchester United. Liverpool have every right to feel optimistic.
Or at least they would if it wasn't for the elephant in the room. Haaland may be changing Man City in strange ways but his goals tally speaks for itself, and on Sunday he comes up against a high line led by an out-of-form Virgil van Dijk and, with Joel Matip injured, Ibrahima Konate. Haaland will love the space to run into and may well put this game to bed single-handedly.
That is the image striking fear into Liverpool supporters. But if their team somehow control Haaland, they have a big chance of condemning Man City to their first defeat of the season.
