Black says teams could well leave it late and assess their situation before deciding whether to use precious cash on winter transfers.
"I think for some clubs there'll be major moves in the winter while others will wait for the summer, dependent on their performances up until that time," he told safc.com.
"Some clubs will feel they've under-achieved and may be willing to spend money to rectify that. Some will be reasonably happy and might try and save money until the summer.
"It tends to be swings and roundabouts in terms of what the expectations of clubs are and where they're sitting in relation to that."
He added: "It's a difficult time to buy, I think, in the winter. It's not a great time to do things unless you can get people who you think are going to be with you for two or three years."