World Cup Qualifiers: Norway V Italy Betting Predictions, Tips & Odds 06 June
The 2026 FIFA World Cup European qualifiers heat up as Group I leaders Norway host Italy on June 6, 2025, at Ullevaal Stadion. Italy aims to rebound after two missed tournaments, while Norway looks to extend its perfect start.
Norway has begun the qualifiers strongly, topping Group I with two wins and the competition’s leading scorers. Italy, which entered after losing its Nations League quarter-final, desires to halt Norway’s rise. Only the group winner qualifies automatically for the World Cup, and the runner-up goes into the playoffs. It is for a hard-fought, intense game.
Tactical Analysis
Norway’s Approach
Norway plans to switch from a back four to a flexible 3-5-2 formation for this crucial qualifier, one suggested by Mohamed Elyounoussi. The formation enhances defensive strength without compromising attacking width courtesy of wing-backs. It also improves midfield dominance and supports star forwards Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth, both with two qualifier goals, by facilitating pacy changes and leveraging Martin Ødegaard’s creative passing.
Italy’s Tactical Setup
Italy, on rock-solid defense under tactician Luciano Spalletti, marries unforgiving defense with dynamic attack via 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formations. With solidity provided by experienced center-back Francesco Acerbi and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, the Italians rely on creative playmakers and fast forwards. Against Norway, Italy may look to be compact and quick in counter-attack to exploit areas exposed by advancing wing-backs.
Recent Form Analysis
Norway’s Form
Norway has started strong, winning their first two qualifiers with a combined 9-2 scoreline. Erling Haaland has scored twice, Martin Ødegaard has four assists, and defender J. Ryerson has contributed offensively. This form highlights Norway’s confidence and attacking efficiency.
Italy’s Form
Italy has yet to play a qualifier but comes off mixed results in friendlies and tournaments. The team is rebuilding with new talents and veterans, and their cohesion will be tested. Historically, Italy has dominated Norway, but current momentum favors Norway.
Key Points
- Norway leads Group I with two wins and top scorers Haaland and Sørloth.
- Italy is rebuilding and aims to disrupt Norway’s attacking rhythm.
- Only the group winner qualifies directly; the runner-up goes to the playoffs.
- Norway likely to use 3-5-2; Italy may use 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
- Match expected to be tight; Norway holds a slight edge.
Pros and Cons Norway
- Strong home form and momentum
- Star forward in excellent form
- Tactical shift may take time to get
- Pressure of maintaining the lead
Pros and Cons Italy
- SExperienced defensive core
- Tactical flexibility under Spalletti
- Lack of recent competitive matches
- Rebuilding phase with new players
Betting Tips & Odds From bet365
- Norway’s home advantage and form make them favorites for a win or draw.
- Italy’s experience means backing a draw or Italy winning offers value in a close match.
- Both teams to score is likely given their attacking threats.
- A narrow Norway win (1-0) is the most probable outcome; consider under 2.5 goals bets.
| Bet Type | Odds |
| Norway to Win | 2.60 |
| Italy to Win | 2.60 |
| Draw | 3.40 |
| Both Teams to Score | 1.61 |
Match Outlook
The battle in tactics will likely be about Norway’s wing-backs creating width against Italy’s back three or four, while Italy will seek to control the midfield and unleash quick counterattacks. Norway’s recent form and attacking prowess give them a narrow edge, but Italy’s experience and tactical adaptability see the game likely to be a close one. Mathematical models indicate that Norway has about a 62.6% chance of winning with a probable 1-0 score, and Italy has a 16.3% chance with a draw at 21%.
Group I Context and Fixtures
Italy’s World Cup qualification roster is mapped out with clashes with Norway, an away match in Oslo on June 6, and a home game on November 16. The group champion will qualify directly for the World Cup, with the second-placed team advancing to the playoff rounds in March 2026.
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Conclusion
Norway’s good beginning and home field advantage provide them a marginal advantage, but Italy’s experience and tactical acumen make them a threat to be reckoned with. Above all, don’t forget to maximize it with a bet365 bonus, claim it by clicking on our banners!
