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Kelly Betting Calculator: Calculate Your Stakes Using Kelly Criterion

emily saunders
Writer
Fact checked by: Mike McKean
Last Updated on 09.07.2024

Wish you could know exactly how much to bet to maximise potential returns? The Kelly Criterion strategy can be just the ticket for you. No need to worry about complex mathematics – just use our Kelly betting calculator.

The guide below will go through everything you need to know about our calculator, including how it works and how to get the most out of it on your sports bets. Fear not if you’re new to using the Kelly Criterion; this guide will help you get a better understanding of this sports betting strategy.

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Try Out Our Free Kelly CalCulator to Refine Your Betting

Kelly calculator

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What is a Kelly Criterion Betting Calculator?

Named after the scientist John L. Kelly Jr., a Kelly Criterion betting calculator works out a rather complicated formula on your behalf to help you understand what percentage of your betting bankroll you should wager to increase the maximum potential return on your bet. It  does so by taking into account the probability of winning or losing the bet, along with the odds.

This is the formula that our free Kelly betting calculator operates under:

F= [(b x p) – q] / (b)

  • F – The fraction of your bankroll that you should bet with
  • b – Odds (in decimal format) minus 1
  • p – How probable the bet is to win based on the odds
  • q – How probable the bet is to lose based on the odds

What’s the Goal of the Kelly Criterion Calculator?

As you can tell, the Kelly Criterion has a complex formula that you’re not going to want to perform manually. Instead, all you have to do is provide a few key details for our Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator, like the decimal odds of your bet, the implied or, better yet, the true probability of your bet winning or losing, and your preferred Kelly multiplier, based on how much risk you’re willing to take. Then you’ll know exactly what percentage of your bankroll to stake on that bet.

Remember that this is just the potential return – there’s no guarantee your bet will win. This calculator makes it so if you do win, your returns are as high as they can be for the type of bet and odds you’ve wagered on, and in the meantime, it will save you time and effort.

Understanding the Kelly Criterion Strategy

Kelly Criterion isn’t for figuring out which bets are worthwhile; it’s just what proportion of your betting budget you should place based on the perceived probability of the bet winning and the odds you’re working with. You can even adjust it based on your confidence towards a winning bet; the multiplier standard is 1, but you can opt to reduce it to a fractional amount, such as 0.5 or 0.25, if you find the recommended percentage to be too high or aggressive for your personal betting style.

Example of a Kelly Bet

So, say you’re betting on a darts Moneyline match between Peter Wright and Luke Humphries. There are odds of 1.22 on Humphries to win. You want to maximise potential returns, so how can Kelly Criterion help you work out how much money to bet on Humphries to win over Wright?

With 1.22 odds in our basic odds calculator, you know the implied probability of Humphries winning is 81.97%. Now if you stuck with that percentage, you’d bet just .02% of your bankroll. However, based on your current research on the match and the players, say you were even more confident towards that bet and you perceive that the true odds of Humphries winning was actually slightly higher, at 83%. Based on that probability, the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 5.73% of your bankroll to maximise your profits even further.

Of course, you could do the numbers yourself, but at the end of the day, that’s a lot of calculating, which is why you can speed up the process and save yourself the headache of having to work out all those steps by instead just using our Kelly Criterion betting calculator!

What Makes Kelly Criterion Worthwhile?

Kelly Criterion is a very popular betting strategy for working out how to split up your bet budget, since it works to help you generate higher returns in the long run. This is because it helps you maximise your budget allocation based on the odds and true probability of that bet winning. Making long-shot bets can still be a good addition to your strategy, after all, but you won’t want to put all of your betting budget onto a long-shot wager. This makes it a very sensible approach, since it can help you better allocate your wagering funds on all the bets you want to make.

What Sports are Best for Betting with Kelly Criterion?

Oftentimes, sports betting calculators are targeted towards specific sports that naturally lend themselves to that strategy. For instance, a tricast/trifecta calculator works mainly on sports that require places. On the other hand, Kelly Criterion is ultimately an effective bankroll management approach and therefore, it works with all types of sports. It’s even used outside of sports betting on things like the stock market. It’s widely used and trusted amongst those who prefer a more hands-on approach to their betting bankroll.

However, it isn’t the only tool that you can use to keep track of your bankroll and betting habits. We have compiled a comprehensive bankroll management guide to help you learn how to manage your budget and bets better, so check it out.

Get Started with Our Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Calculator

Ready to speed up and simplify your Kelly Criterion strategy? Use our free Kelly betting calculator. You can use it as many times as you like, allowing you to quickly and easily plan out how you intend to spread out your game’s bankroll in an instant.

  1. Enter your preferred Kelly multiplier (0.25/0.5 for conservative bets, 1 for standard bets, and over 1 for riskier bets)
  2. Enter the odds of the bet you want to place and then the expected probability of winning as a percentage.

With that information, this calculator will give you the fraction of your bet budget you’ll want to wager to optimise your win potential.

Kelly calculator

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Our Three Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Calculator Benefits

If you are going to use the Kelly Criterion method, then it simply makes sense to use our Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator. There are many reasons why, but our top three are listed below:

1. Increase The Maximum Return Potential on Every Bet

Our free Kelly betting calculator can’t guarantee your bet will win, but it can help you get more back in winnings simply by working out the recommended amount of your bankroll you should place on the wager. This way, you can get more potential returns on the chance your bet wins than simply putting a bet amount blind.

2. Forget the Formula Headaches

Kelly Criterion is one of the more complex formulas, requiring more steps than other betting calculators to do manually. Using our calculator saves time and effort when plotting out your bankroll strategy for the game.

3. Easy to Adjust in Seconds

Made a mistake? Odds change on you? You can quickly swap out values in seconds and instantly generate new results. This way, you can go through different bet options in a flash or fix a mistake instantly. The old values don’t leave until you change them or refresh the page, so adapting your values is a cinch.

The Best Bookmakers to Use Your Kelly Criterion Approach

Just as it’s valid for all sports, a Kelly Criterion betting calculator can also be used alongside any sportsbook. The only consideration you need to make is who is the best of the best. At the end of the day, you always want to bet on a trustworthy site with competitive odds and bonuses that work for your betting approach. Not sure which sportsbook to go for? Don’t worry; we’ve reviewed all the top betting sites!

Must-Know Tips to Get the Most Out of Our Kelly Criterion Calculator

The Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator is more complex than other calculators, so you’ll want to ensure you follow our tried and tested top tips when using it. Be patient with yourself, as it takes a bit of a learning curve.

Use Our Odds Calculator to Find the True Probability

You need to know the true probability of your bet winning or losing in order to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. While you can manually calculate this, save yourself time by using our Fair Odds calculator.

Be Aware of What the Recommendation Means

Our calculator can help you determine how much your bet should be placed on either/or outcomes. So, for example, it can help you determine how much you should bet on Team A to win and how much you should bet on Team B to win.

Have a Budget for Each Bet

A good way to get an accurate bankroll recommendation is to have a budget for each bet. Say you have $10 to spend on the Moneyline result. Use our calculator to get how much of that $10 you should bet on your team winning. You can then use the rest on another bet.

What Other Calculators Do We Offer on This Site?

Think our free Kelly betting calculator is the only option we have on our site? Think again. We have over 15 different betting calculators that you can use to help boost your strategy efforts. So, if you’re looking for extra calculators to use alongside this Kelly betting calculator, or if you want to try a different strategy, have a look at our other calculators today:

Ready? Get Started with Our Kelly Criterion Calculator Today

Kelly Criterion is one of the most effective bankroll management strategies for bettors. It can, however, cause a headache trying to get all those formulas to work. That’s why you should use our free Kelly betting calculator to speed up the process, save yourself the headache, and enhance your bankroll efforts. When done right, the Kelly Criterion method can help maximise potential returns if your bet wins. With our free-to-use calculator, nothing is holding you back from seeing what the calculator recommends before your team’s next game.

The Hottest Bonuses to Use With the Kelly Criterion Method

Betting bonuses can change the game when it comes to any bet. Odds boosts, profit boosts and similar bonuses will impact what the Kelly Criterion calculator recommends – and many times for the better. Have a look at the top bonuses offered today:

Kelly Criterion Calculator FAQs

Yes, it is entirely legal to use this method. There are no laws against it in any country, so you can use it with full confidence.

️🤔Will sportsbooks ban me if I use the Kelly Criterion strategy?

Not necessarily. If you use this method to only place bets on one team rather than on all outcomes, there’s no reason for sportsbooks to flag your account and put limits on it. You’re inching towards a grey area only if you’re also using arbitrage.

🧐Should I use the implied or true probability with the Kelly Criterion calculator?

You’ll want to use the true probability, since this is the closest indicator you’ll get as to how likely an event will occur. Using the implied probability means accounting for the house edge, which can skew the true odds, changing the overall recommendations when using the Kelly Criterion method.

🏇 Can I use the Kelly Criterion on live bets?

You can try, but since live bets update quickly and change just as fast, you may struggle to get the values into the calculator while the odds are still valid.

➕What’s a good Kelly multiplier option for a long-term betting strategy?

You’ll want to go for a more modest multiplier if you’re using the Kelly Criterion method in the long term. The calculator is automatically set to 1, so make sure you put it down to 0.5 or even less, as this will reduce the recommended bet amount for a safer wager proportion.

Players must be 21 years of age or older or reach the minimum age for gambling in their respective state and located in jurisdictions where online gambling is legal. Please play responsibly. Bet with your head, not over it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, and wants help, call or visit: (a) the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey at 1-800-Gambler or www.800gambler.org; or (b) Gamblers Anonymous at 855-2-CALL-GA or www.gamblersanonymous.org.

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