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Talking tactics: Why this North London derby will set up Tottenham or Arsenal as title contender

The North London Derby is always among the most ferocious and high-energy matches in the Premier League calendar but the first of the 2022/23 season feels particularly set up for drama – and loaded with significance. It is arguably the first time in the competition's history that Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur go head-to-head as title contenders, and it just so happens that the tactical identities of the two teams mesh together in a way that almost guarantees action.


Defining match

It will be a fascinating battle between Mikel Arteta and Antonio Conte that should go a long way to defining if either can challenge Manchester City this season, not because the fixture itself is a six-pointer but because the tactical strengths and weaknesses, for both teams, will be stretched to their limits.

Conte's preference for a deeper line of engagement with minimal pressing is partly a strategy designed for defensive solidity, yet it also plays a crucial role in his on-the-ball desire to play sharply and directly through the lines. Either by counter-attacking from deep (having drawn the opponent forward with their own hunched shape) or by using meticulously choreographed passing patterns (known as automatisms, coached repetitively in training) to create artificial counters, his Tottenham Hotspur side are all about a quick route to goal.

Arteta is his spiritual opposite. As a disciple of Pep Guardiola - whose influence on the game has made Conte's tactics unfashionable, hence the irrelevant complaints about Spurs failing to dominate matches – Arteta believes in neat passing triangles all over the pitch and the religion of the rondo. As well as seeking to dominate possession Arsenal press hard, particularly just after the ball is lost, and hold a high defensive line.


Lessons to heed

It is easy, then, to work out the broad pattern of how Saturday's game will go. Arsenal will hog the ball at the Emirates as Spurs cautiously wait for chances to break the Gunners' high line and the hosts look to pull the defensive shell apart. The match will be fascinating, yet before we get into the details about how the game will go it is worth exploring just how much we will learn from the outcome.

For Tottenham, their good form at the start of the season has shown they can, through brute force, beat the smaller teams. There had been question marks regarding whether Conte's lower block can function in the high-pressing modern Premier League, where territory is now so essential, but Tottenham's set-piece prowess and the quality of their forwards has shown they are capable. Instead, the main question is whether 'Big Six' opponents will have learnt from Spurs' 3-2 win at Manchester City last year and found a way to halt the counters.

Arsenal have more to prove. Their table-topping start could be put down to the quality of their opponent, and indeed a 3-1 defeat to Manchester United has suggested Arteta will struggle against the kind of side that sits deep and waits to counter – as a Solskjaer-inspired United did in that game. To match the aggression and tactical energy of Conte, and to devise the build-up play required to tease the Spurs defence apart, would represent a huge step in the right direction for Arsenal.

Spurs seem the more likely to win. The injured Oleksandar Zinchenko had been vital in moving into central midfield to support Thomas Partey and shield against the counters, but in the Ukranian's absence Partey is likely to be left with too much to do – especially when partnered by the flat-footed Granit Xhaka. This is an enormous concern for Arsenal because of how Spurs attack, namely by playing vertical passes into the feet of Heung-Min Son, Harry Kane, and Dejan Kulusevski as they drop into the number ten space. If Arsenal are unable to fully occupy these areas in transitional moments, then Tottenham can break through that expansive Gunners shape and cause major damage.


Aggressive edge

The fact that Conte teams are so physically and psychologically aggressive also gives them an edge over Arteta's Arsenal, although the return of Martin Odegaard is a reason for optimism. Tottenham's weakest area is at left wing-back where Ryan Sessegnon often works alone, receiving little support from Son, who is instructed to lurk high with Kane. One of the great advantages of Arsenal's new balance on the left, where Gabriel Martinelli runs at defenders, is that it draws the play to that side of the pitch, creating more room for Odegaard to link with Bukayo Saka on the right. Saka versus Sessegnon is an important battle.

But it would be naïve to suggest the match will be played entirely in a possession-versus-counter manner. For starters Arsenal are strong on the break themselves, which means there is the chance this could descend into an end-to-end contest for long periods when the hosts counter off the back of a Spurs attack. What's more, both Arsenal and Spurs have scored five set-piece goals this season, so even if these counters don't lead to goals there will always be a lurking threat. In other words, it might be one of the games of the season.

And, for one of them, it can spark a serious title challenge. The World Cup is going to wreak havoc on domestic football in ways we cannot yet predict. Big clubs will be exhausted in 2023 and those lower down the table will benefit from rested players through December, while the most tactically astute managers – such as Conte and Arteta – will enjoy the second pre-season.

We may see a lower points tally than usual at the top of the Premier League, opening up a surprise title race. But if anyone is to get close to Man City they'll need a lot of momentum; need a statement win. Saturday's derby could hardly be any bigger.

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Alex Keble
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Alex Keble

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