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Tactical analysis: How Guardiola & Man City put themselves in pole position for Prem title

When Manchester City last met Tottenham, they lost 2-0 and fell to 11th place in the Premier League table. They did not look anything at all like serious title contenders. Less than three months later, however, and as the two sides prepare to meet again the tables have turned.

Spurs, who reached the league summit with that win in November, are now eighth. City, meanwhile, are five points clear at the top with a game in hand, and have broken the record for successive wins by an English top-flight club.

Here, we at Tribal Football consider possible reasons behind Manchester City's revival over the last few months.



THE CENTRE-BACK PARTNERSHIP

Since their 1-1 draw at home to West Brom in mid-December, City have won 10 consecutive Premier League matches. In this remarkable run, they have kept eight clean sheets and conceded just two goals. Currently their defensive record is by far the best in the division – they have let in eight goals fewer than second-best Tottenham.

There are numerous potential explanations for this, but Pep Guardiola finally nailing down his best centre-back pairing has undoubtedly helped.

Manchester City spent over £100 million on new defenders last summer, with Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake arriving from Benfica and Bournemouth respectively to bolster Guardiola's options. It's the former who has had the most impact, starting all of City's games in the present winning run. In nine of those 10 matches he has been joined by a resurgent John Stones.

There is a more settled appearance about City's defence now, which is understandable considering they now have a pair of centre-backs that are playing together week in, week out. Dias has gone so far as to mention the partnership in interviews, saying: "The connection with John [Stones] has been just brilliant".



BOX TO BOX CANCELO

An established centre-back pairing helps with communication and defensive understanding, but City can also partly thank Joao Cancelo for their recent upturn. The Portuguese has developed into one of the best players in the league in his position, but he isn't playing as a traditional flying full-back.

Cancelo is often seen playing inside – whether he starts on the right or the left of the back four, he tends to position himself as an extra midfielder during attacks. One benefit of this is it gives extra protection to Stones and Dias, ensuring City can't be cut open so easily in transitions. Another benefit is it allows him to be more involved in build-up play.

Guardiola has frequently experimented with full-backs coming inside, and it hasn't always worked. But Cancelo is ideal considering his quality on the ball. With trickery, intelligent runs and good passing, the 26-year-old essentially acts as a box-to-box midfielder, pushing up when he sees the opportunity and supplying the forwards. Below we see him finding Riyad Mahrez against Burnley.

According to WhoScored data, only two other Manchester City players average more dribbles per game than Cancelo – Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne. Furthermore, only two players make more key passes (passes leading directly to a shot) – De Bruyne and Mahrez.

Not only does Cancelo fill gaps in midfield to help defend in transition, but he creates lots of chances for his teammates. It could be argued that no player is more important to City than he is right now.



GUNDOGAN FILLS THE SCORING VOID

During City's winning streak, they have been without a fully fit Sergio Aguero. The Argentine hasn't started a single game in this 10-game league run, while his obvious replacement – Gabriel Jesus – has only started three games. Playing without a natural striker, Guardiola has needed goals from other areas, and Ilkay Gundogan has stepped up.

Prior to this term, Gundogan's highest goal tally for a single season was six. And before City's winning run he had scored just once in seven league outings. He was widely regarded as a tidy central midfielder, though not necessarily a threatening one. But he has found the net eight times in his last 10 appearances, becoming the club's top scorer in Premier League action.

Of his nine league goals this season, only two have come from outside the penalty box. Those strikes against West Brom and Crystal Palace showed that Gundogan can score from distance, but the main theme in his recent scoring explosion has been hitting the penalty box. Both of his goals against Liverpool came from him being in position to score tap-ins, one coming from a rebound.

Making runs in the channels to offer for the ball in behind, or getting in position to finish on a cross or cut-back, Gundogan has helped his side cope without a natural No.9.



CITY'S TITLE TO LOSE

With an established centre-back partnership and superb individual performances from Cancelo and Gundogan in adapted roles, Manchester City have put themselves in a strong position to regain the Premier League title. However, in a season defined by unexpected twists and turns, nothing is guaranteed.

It would be easy to dismiss the 5-2 loss to Leicester earlier on in the campaign, or the 1-1 draw at home to struggling West Brom that directly preceded this winning, as results from another era. But they aren't. The reality is City are still fallible – they're just better than the rest.

The fixture list is about to get much tougher. In the 10-game winning streak Guardiola's side have faced just three top-half teams. Two of those three, Chelsea under Frank Lampard and an injury-riddled Liverpool, could be defined as being in crisis.

In the next month, they will face Tottenham and Manchester United, trips to Everton and Arsenal, and a crucial Champions League knockout tie away to Borussia Monchengladbach. If they survive that stretch unscathed, the league title will officially be Manchester City's to lose.

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Blair Newman
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Blair Newman

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