That 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United in May could be Arsenal's sliding doors moment. Champions League qualification was still in their hands after defeat to Tottenham Hotspur but a typically frail, hesitant display on the road saw them fall out of the top four and raised fresh questions about their ceiling under Mikel Arteta.
It was a performance and result that could ripple through the 2022/23 campaign and ultimately define Arteta's tenure; the sort of brittle 90 minutes that made it feel as though, two-and-a-half years in, not enough had changed, and that Arsenal are destined to remain outside the Champions League. The upcoming campaign will be their sixth in a row outside that elite and lucrative competition. Eventually the financial loss will tell.
Arsenal are perpetually gearing up for a landmark season, are perpetually on the precipice of something: a reckoning, a new dawn, a final shot. This year is no different, of course, with the narrative thrust being Arteta's last chance following the disappointment of how the 2021/22 season ended. The problem, however, is that this time around all of their 'Big Six' rivals are in a healthy position.
Arteta instructs his players during preseason
The Gunners are moving forward. It's just that Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United are moving forward faster, the former super-charged by a world-class manager and the latter benefitting from a shake-up that looks to have finally unleashed their immense financial power. All of which brings an unfortunate paradox for Arteta and Arsenal, who could perform better than last season and win more points while dropping from fifth to sixth.
But speculating on the fortunes of others is an unhelpful way for Arsenal to think about their own progress, and with three weeks to go before the Premier League begins supporters can at least feel optimistic about their chances of steadily improving on the previous campaign.
Areas of weakness have been strengthened, of that there is no doubt. Gabriel Jesus is an excellent signing whose intelligent work outside the area, and his poacher's instinct, represent a major upgrade on Alexandre Lacazette. Jesus has the speed of thought, versatility, and Pep Guardiola training to sew together those talented midfield and forward lines, in theory allowing Arsenal's sharp vertical attacks through Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard to flow more freely.
Too often last season Arsenal were stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lacazette's one-touch link play helped Odegaard, Saka, and Emile Smith Rowe arrive at pace in the final third – only without a natural finisher to find with a final ball – while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (then Eddie Nketiah) offered the latter skill but not the former. Jesus combines both, and to a higher standard.
Gabriel Jesus has already scored in preseason
Fabio Vieira looks like a very promising young forward and, along with Marquinhos, should provide healthy competition ahead of a tiring campaign of Thursday-Sunday football. Participation in this year's Europa League, after the free midweeks of 2021/22, puts another obstacle in Arsenal's way and means Vieira in particular will need to hit the ground running.
Vieira is ideal for Arteta's Guardiola-inspired tactics in that he chiefly operates in the left or right half-spaces, looking to create chances just behind the centre-forward. It is exactly where Smith Rowe and Odegaard like to play, but unlike these two Vieira has a burst of pace and a sweeping directness – as well as a goalscoring touch. He will likely be started in the majority of Europa League games, where Arteta will need a distinct team to avoid burnout domestically.
For that, Arsenal need to make a few more signings by the end of August – and it is in this regard that fans will feel most optimistic. Talks reportedly continue for Oleksandar Zinchenko, Youri Tielemans, and Lucas Paqueta, three signings who would offer significant improvements to the team.
Zinchenko's versatility and intelligence is perfect for an inverted left-back, helping Arteta create unusual overloads on either flank. Like Takehiro Tomiyasu and Cedric Soares on the right, Zinchenko and Kieran Tierney would offer entirely different skill sets, meaning Arteta's tightly-choreographed hybrid formations can confound opponents in a whole new way. More specifically, Zinchenko's ability to step into midfield would give Arsenal's eights greater freedom to roam forward and join Jesus.
Paqueta against West Ham United in the Europa League
One of those eights could be Tielemans, the most exciting potential transfer of them all. He is superb at both receiving and making progressive passes, cutting balls vertically through the lines to move Leicester quickly from their own third into the attacking third, which is a quality an often flat-footed Arsenal midfield desperately needs. At the moment, Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny serve only to slow things down with their sideways distribution; Tieleman's urgency is far more in keeping with Arteta's vision.
The most ambitious and expensive of the three is Paqueta, who doesn't immediately look like a player Arsenal need given the amount of talent they now possess in attacking midfield. Nevertheless their approach for the 24-year-old shows the club's intent; they are no longer deploying a one-in one-out policy on big-name players, seemingly ready at last to build a deep squad despite the cost.
It's all good news, then, for Arsenal supporters, and yet they can be forgiven for feeling oddly deflated even as important transfers edge closer. That is the strangeness of Arsenal's situation this summer: moving forward, but still being overtaken.
