Real Madrid are in the midst of a crisis...
Julen Lopetegui, brought in to replace Zinedine Zidane, has struggled to impose his style on a team in transition. Sure, the new manager hasn't been helped by the summer sale of Cristiano Ronaldo, so often the team's primary source of attacking inspiration in previous years. However, Lopetegui's constant rotation of personnel hasn't helped the side settle either.
The results of this uncertainty have been painful. Real have gone without victory in their last four league games, three of which have been defeats. And, of those three defeats, two came against Alaves and Levante, teams that floundered near the relegation zone last term. To add to the woe, their fiercest rivals are next up.
This weekend's Clasico has an air of inevitability about it. Barcelona, the hosts of this particular meeting, have clicked into something approaching top form in recent weeks, with big wins over Sevilla, Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan helping them to first place in La Liga and a tough Champions League group. Meanwhile, Real Madrid and their manager appear beleaguered.
A Real win is improbable, but not impossible. Here, we at Tribal Football consider how Lopetegui should organise his players to give them the best chance of securing three massive points.
MODIFY THE SYSTEM
Lopetegui has preferred a 4-3-3 system throughout his short time in charge of Real Madrid thus far, though he may want to modify this shape slightly for this Sunday's trip to Camp Nou. By having Luka Modric push slightly higher up defensively and taking up more of a 4-4-1-1 rather than a 4-1-4-1, Los Blancos may be slightly tougher to penetrate.
Barcelona boss Ernesto Valverde has to deal with the absence of Lionel Messi, who broke his arm in the recent league win over Sevilla. But the former Athletic Bilbao coach seems to have struck upon a working system in the last few matches. The only major change to facilitate this improvement has been the introduction of Arthur to the centre of midfield.
The Brazilian plays a lot like Barca icon Xavi. His control is immaculate, his passing crisp and simple. He also keeps his head up and always seems to find a teammate. In short, he is very difficult to dispossess, which explains his 95.3 per cent pass completion this season – a rate beaten by no Barcelona player outside of centre-back Samuel Umtiti, who will also miss out this weekend.
Against Inter, Arthur slotted into the left of central midfield alongside Sergio Busquets and Ivan Rakitic. This trident are extremely resistant to pressure, so Lopetegui must prioritise the space between his Real Madrid side's defence and midfield lines when pressing. Having Toni Kroos alongside Casemiro in this area could help to plug the gaps which will appear when, not if, Barcelona out-play Real's pressing.
PROTECT THE CENTRE
Should Lopetegui utilise a 4-4-1-1 defensive system he would essentially be copying Inter Milan's approach against Barcelona in Champions League action. While the Italians struggled to build possession, they defended fairly well, stultifying their hosts who clearly missed Messi's speed and precision in the final third.
However, simply adopting this system will not solve the problems Valverde's side pose offensively. Their 4-3-3 structure becomes more of a 2-5-3 with the ball, and it presents a number of issues that are not easily dealt with.
Firstly the '2-3' structure formed by Barcelona's two centre-backs and three central midfielders allows for multiple passing options and combinations when building from the back. This enables them to establish controlled possession. Then, moving into the middle and final third, the high and wide positioning of the full-backs, alongside the more centralised positioning of the nominal wingers, causes headaches for defences.
If Real Madrid's full-backs are drawn out to their opposite men, this leaves space behind that Barcelona could exploit through triangles between their ball-near central midfielder, winger and full-back. An example of this is seen below against Sevilla – Arthur, Coutinho and Alba form a triangle and combine, drawing pressure and freeing up space for the latter to attack into down the wing.
Furthermore, should Lopetegui look to apply pressure in central midfield, the positioning of Barcelona's full-backs can create space inside for the front three to exploit. An example of this is seen below against Inter. Here, an Inter right central midfielder moves up to close down Arthur, who has the ball. The positioning of Alba, circled, means Inter's right winger must stay reasonably wide to maintain access to him. All of this leads to a gap in Inter's midfield four that Arthur penetrates with a through ball to Luis Suarez, who then links up with Philippe Coutinho.
The priority for Real Madrid in this match must be to protect the centre of the pitch and force Barcelona wide and into less harmful crossing situations. This means both Real wingers must drop back to form a compact midfield line, reducing the space for Arthur, Busquets and Rakitic to pass into. Failure to do this will lead to the likes of Coutinho and Suarez getting the on the ball in the final third with only one line of defence to open up.
FAST BREAKS COULD PROVIDE ATTACKING ANSWERS
Lopetegui has rotated personnel through his first campaign at the Bernabeu so far. As a consequence, it is unclear who he will settle for in the wide roles this weekend. However, if he accepts that Barcelona are to have the majority of possession, it may be worth playing pacey wingers on either side of Karim Benzema up front.
Gareth Bale and Marco Asensio are the favoured wide duet, and should they both start this weekend the reigning European champions will have two exceptional out-balls to relieve pressure and counter-attack in the wide channels.
Barcelona's counter-pressing is extremely intense, even causing a team as organised as Tottenham problems when they met in the Champions League. But Real Madrid have quality ball-players throughout their spine, and the midfield trio of Kroos, Modric and Casemiro must look to retain possession in the first five seconds after winning it. By doing this they can suck defenders towards the ball before releasing Bale and Asensio into space on the break.
It's potentially risky, but then every possible game plan Lopetegui could implement would be fraught with risk – Barcelona are simply a more complete team than Real Madrid at this moment in time. Real's season isn't the only thing on the line this weekend – their manager's job is, too.
