For a long time, the belief was that in the Premier League, 'anyone could beat anyone'. This idea was reinforced in 2016 when Leicester City won the title against all odds. However, in the three years since, the top of the league table has had a familiar feel about it.
In the last three years, the top six sides have been exactly the same: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur. This group, thanks to a combination of vast wealth, savvy recruitment, world class players and top coaching, appear ingrained as England's best.
Breaking the top six is a tough task, but four clubs look increasingly up to the job. Here, we at Tribal Football analyse this quartet – Everton, Leicester, West Ham and Wolves – and assess their chances of gate-crashing the Premier League elite in 2020.
EVERTON
Everton lined up in a 4-2-3-1 last term. The system allowed Gylfi Sigurdsson to play in a more advanced role behind a physical frontman, while pace and skill came from the wide men. Richarlison looked to cut in from the left, with left-back Lucas Digne overlapping and providing excellent crossing, while Theo Walcott was more direct on the right-hand side.
Without the ball, Everton had a higher pressing intensity than rivals Liverpool. Their PPDA (number of passes the opposition are allowed to play without being tackled or intercepted etc.) was just 9.81. For context, only Man City, Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea had a lower number in this category.
Aggressive pressing and domination of possession are top six traits, but Silva needs better quality personnel. This is especially the case since Kurt Zouma returned to Chelsea, while Idrissa Gueye – one of the best ball-winners around – has joined Paris Saint-Germain. Jean-Philippe Gbamin, who is rumoured to be arriving, could help fill the void left by Gueye in defence and attacking transition, breaking up opposition moves before bursting forward into space.
Fabian Delph brings battling qualities to midfield, though he spent most of his time at left-back under Pep Guardiola. Andre Gomes is a decent permanent addition, while Jonas Lossl adds good backup to Jordan Pickford, but there simply isn't enough quality at centre-back, central midfield or striker for a serious top-six push.
LEICESTER
Brendan Rodgers has implemented his tactical approach quickly since returning to the Premier League with Leicester. His side line up in a 4-3-3 shape, with technically gifted and attack-minded No.8s operating in the inside channels and overlapping full-backs that allow the wingers to come inside between the lines.
Under his auspices, Leicester will play a positional attacking game that looks to create numerical overloads, break the lines and get talented individuals into 1v1 situations out wide. This will be followed up by intense counter-pressing in defensive transition.
Rodgers has a good squad at his disposal, and this has been bolstered by a summer where no key players have yet left and several new ones have arrived. Youri Tielemens' loan has been made permanent, while Ayoze Perez is the type of support striker Leicester previously lacked behind Jamie Vardy, who remains a threat with his intelligent, quick runs in behind defences.
Keeping Harry Maguire is key, but in Filip Benkovic – who impressed on loan at Celtic under Rodgers last term – Leicester have a solid, if inexperienced and more conservative, replacement. Greater depth at centre-back would be needed if the England international does leave, but otherwise they look ready to kick on from their ninth-place finish last season.
WEST HAM
In Manuel Pellegrini's first campaign at the helm, West Ham moved from an initial 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 that gave them slightly more presence and left them less open in midfield. They built out from the back more often and focused more on controlling the ball, which showed up statistically through a 2.6% increase in average possession and 59 more short passes played per game.
Still, much of their attacking was wing-oriented, with Felipe Anderson the star of the show on the left with his cutting inside, exceptional dribbling skill and pace. Both full-backs provided overlapping runs, though this sometimes left the central defenders exposed on transition.
Marko Arnautovic pulled a lot of their play together, dropping deep to link play and scoring 10 goals in league action. The Austrian forward has since moved to China, but this may not be such a big issue thanks to the arrival of Sebastian Haller, a tall, aerially dominant striker who offers a threat on crosses, offers an obvious target for long balls, presses intelligently and has a history of hitting double figures almost every full season he plays.
Behind him, the addition of Pablo Fornals is equally exciting. The Spaniard will bring control and creativity to a midfield that previously lacked in both of these departments, and the idea of him playing alongside a fit Manual Lanzini and Anderson behind Haller is an intriguing prospect.
In Pellegrini, West Ham have an experienced manager who has won league titles and coached at the highest level of European football. They now also have a more varied attacking game, and are perhaps a more energetic right-back replacement for Pablo Zabaleta away from a more concerted top six push.
WOLVES
Wolves came closest to breaking into the top six last season, ultimately finishing just nine points behind Manchester United. Nuno Santo's side were built around solid defence, conceding just 46 goals in 38 league games. Their defensive record was fifth-best in the Premier League, while their expected goals against was even better: only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea had a lower xGA than Wolves' 42.7.
Graduating from a 3-4-3 to a 3-5-2, Wolves defended positionally and kept their shape extremely well. Their more passive, zonal approach is underlined statistically by the fact only five teams allowed their opposition to complete more passes per defensive action on average. However, despite this lack of intensity in pressing, Santo's men had good central coverage through three centre-backs and three central midfielders, as only five teams allowed their opposition to complete fewer passes on average within 20 yards of goal.
Good defensive play was the emphasis, so Wolves generally enjoyed less possession than the other three aspirational teams mentioned in this article. However, when they did have the ball they used it effectively. Their wing-backs, Matt Doherty and Jonny, make superb forward runs to get around and behind back lines, while Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves pull the strings in midfield with penetrative passing. Up front, the powerful Raul Jimenez is supported ably by Diego Jota, who tends to roam between the lines and play off second balls.
The summer has also been good – not only have they kept their stars, but they've added highly rated prospects Jesus Vallejo and Patrick Cutrone to the squad. Both are young and were on the fringes of top sides in Real Madrid and AC Milan, showcasing the ambition this Wolves side has.
CONCLUSION: WHO IS BEST PLACED?
Everton are probably the traditionally 'biggest' club in this group, though they are the least well-prepared for the season ahead. Their spine needs serious work, and there remain question marks over how successful their manager can be.
West Ham's manager is proven at the top level, and while his tactical ideas aren't particularly complex, he has a good squad with real quality in the attacking areas. If his new signings adapt well to England, an improvement on last season's 10th place is possible.
Wolves are the most organised and ambitious side in this group, but are entering just their second season back in the top flight. They perhaps need more variety going forward in order to challenge the elite.
Leicester, therefore, are the best-placed side to push the top six this season. Rodgers has won titles at Celtic, challenged for the Premier League title with Liverpool, and has a clear tactical identity. He also has the players to make his ideas reality, not to mention a few – Kasper Schmeichel, Jonny Evans, Mark Albrighton and Jamie Vardy – who have been English champions before.
All data in this article was provided byWhoScored andUnderstat.