"When you look at the games Fulham, Birmingham, ourselves and Reading have got I think you would probably look and say that Birmingham are favourites in this relegation battle to stay up because of the fact that they have got two home games," Megson said.
"I know very well from being in that part of the world and I don't think it's any coincidence the amount of penalties and free-kicks they seem to get at that place that have enabled them to pick up results.
"So I would say that Birmingham are probably favourites to get out of this because of the two home games."
Megson insists that his theory is not a psychological ploy aimed at adding to the pressure facing a Birmingham side reeling from last Sunday's 5-1 derby mauling by Aston Villa.
"If you look at the facts I think they have had six penalties this season," he said.
"Birmingham's really are. I have taken teams there and it is a really difficult place to go.
"I think it follows if you look at the facts of how many penalties they get compared to other people and free-kicks around the box that when you look back are a little bit iffy."