Player agent Christian Emile is of the belief that the incoming Uefa financial fair play rule will force English Premier League clubs to rein in their big-spending ways.
The licensed FIFA agent and director of 121 Sports Marketing and Consulting sees the amount that clubs spend will slow down from this summer onwards as the Union of European Football Associations strives to bring the sanity back to the game by putting constraints on those clubs who seemingly make the most of having wealthy owners.
The most recent January transfer market saw a few big-money deals done on the final day - one a British transfer record, Andy Carroll to Liverpool for £35million, before Fernando Torres was bought by Chelsea for £50m - but Emile is convinced that things will settle down now that clubs have been instructed to become more financially viable.
He admits he was taken aback by the dealings during the winter window but expects things to be a lot calmer during the summer market.
"I was very surprised. There was a £225million spend in the January transfer market. But if you look at it it's done by four clubs - Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Man City," he told tribalfootball.com.
"If you look at last January's transfer market, the spend was about £30million, so a very low spend. This one was particularly surprising for two reasons - one was the new 25-man squad rule and the other was the fact that right now, Premier League clubs have had high revenues but in terms of liquidity and available credit, there is a shortage.
"This season, as I said, it's only been those four clubs who have really been spending and there's two reasons for that I think. Number one - Liverpool is in new ownership and when new owners come in, like Man City did, that's when you see clubs want to get the fans on side so they make a couple of really good signings. (Luis) Suarez is a brilliant player and Andy Carroll obviously. Man City wanted (Edin) Dzeko, the wanted him for a long time, so they got their man in the end, but I don't think we will see Man City spend as much with the first stages of the new rule (Uefa financial fair play rule) set to be introduced this summer."
Emile continued on, saying that the amount of money clubs in England, and all over Europe lose, has forced Uefa to get active and regulate things, hence the imminent introduction of the new rule.
"Half the big teams in Europe have reported losses," he added. "Some of them are in serious financial trouble as they collect debt from transfers and player wages so what Uefa has been trying to do for the past two years, is bring in a new regulation where clubs cannot repeatedly spend more than their income and act with more financial responsibility.
"From now clubs will start to get themselves into place and prepare themselves for that so it will be interesting to see how the summer goes. I think everybody will have it in the back of their head that next season they cannot have any outstanding balances. Over the course of the next few seasons leading up to 2014 when sanctions will be imposed if a club's books do not balance, there will still be some big transfers and wages but certainly not as much as we are seeing now."
As always, January's window was used by clubs to bring in ready-made EPL players and Emile does not see that changing down the track. He also pointed to a new pattern arising in the January market attributed to the new regulation introduced by the Premier League this season.
"The beginning of the January transfer market was very slow. It was mostly loan deals and free transfers, nothing really special," he said further. "Because of the 25-man squads, there has been good bargains for other teams.
"A lot of the teams this January were looking for proven players who can come in and be ready and who knows about the Premiership, a player who is ready to go like Obafemi Martins at Birmingham."
One club who always comes up in transfer conversations is Chelsea and Emile feels that they made it clear to the rest of the league that they still harbor serious ambitions with their winter signings. As for what will happen in the summer, it may not be as clear cut.
"I think Chelsea were heavily involved in this transfer market to show everyone that they were still serous about all competitions," he said of the defending Premier League champions. "Both players are good buys I think - Fernando Torres was the best premier player who was available.
"He was not cup-tied in the Uefa Champions League because Liverpool weren't in it and he is a brilliant addition and for them to bring in David Luiz, I think was fantastic, he has been unbelievable what we have seen from him so far.
"To bring them in during January had a big impact on the team, the results are starting to come back so I still feel that Chelsea's ambitions are as high as they were.
"Carlo Ancelotti is beginning to bring in the younger boys so it depends on what the likes of (Didier) Drogba and (Florent) Malouda do with their careers but you could see them bringing in a few fresh faces."
I thought it would be interesting to ask Emile if he has had any personal experiences with any of his players regarding transfers. Often there are rumours linking players with clubs that come out of nowhere and with the internet and press in general being such a strong means of providing 'free speech' and opinions, the truth never gets in the way of a good story. But more often than not, things that are reported come as a surprise to those involved as Emile pointed out.
"For any player it's always a compliment to be linked with other top teams but I always advise our players not to pay any attention unless it's something solid that has come from your agent or from your club," he added.
"Especially if a player is unhappy at a club, baseless transfer rumours will affect him negatively on the pitch and in the dressing room.
And as for those deals that get done with months out from the end of the season, quite frequently it is a myth.
"There are occasions where a club really wants a certain player and will act first to secure the deal before someone else does so in the window. However, it is not often that you will have a deal done in February or March as most teams will be looking at where they need to improve and analyzing the transfer market," Emile concluded.
"In January, you fix what is immediately wrong with your team, it's like quick-fix.
"Come summer time, you know what sort of players you want for the long term, in which positions and you go from there."
