United boss Sir Alex Ferguson insists Rooney will stay.
Graham, however, is unsure whether Rooney's long-term future lies at Old Trafford.
"I have got a funny feeling it won't be," said the former Scotland international, who had a spell at United as a player.
"It is a big call and it might not be Sir Alex's decision, it may be the money men's decision in the background. Two years is usually the time you start negotiating again with a new contract.
"Yes, I am sure United will offer him a new contract but it may be less money than he is on now."
Yet should Rooney come to move on, Graham expects options to be limited.
He said: "There are only a few clubs that could afford him - two or three in Italy, two clubs in Spain.
"Even in France now, with their tax situation, I wonder if Paris St Germain could even afford Wayne Rooney."